Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a426dc887d79c44771ea415e66820b5b25bc52474a5aa42ccf05d1321e8cf0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked No | 63c | 2,143$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,886$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.9 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 38c | 911$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.82 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 4c | 901.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 62c | 717$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.54 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 10c | 658.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 12c | 584.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 62c | 355.11$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 7c | 262.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 37c | 238.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 34c | 220$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 202.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 65c | 190$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 189$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 36c | 183.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes | 37c | 152.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 35c | 113.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…9502backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600e…5ab6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 25c | 91.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…5bd0backed No | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 37c | 75.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 62c | 73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 62c | 68.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…eac0backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad9…65d7backed Yes | 38c | 55.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +416.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked No | 62c | 46.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 62c | 32.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…814ebacked Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…e0c4backed Yes | 65c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 66c | 26.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a8…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.