TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Serie A · resolved market

Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes36c50,000$17,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,209.5310952.3%57 W · 52 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes36c31,111$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,911.112245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No64c28,287$18,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,104.098558.8%50 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No64c20,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,8004351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No66c19,900$13,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,1341145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-34.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No64c16,102$10,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,305.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes34c9,500$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,27016045%72 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed No12c6,550$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Yes36c4,591$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.241650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7879…4345backed No64c2,904$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.441729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No68c2,782$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.4524657.3%141 W · 105 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No70c2,420$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.8120143.8%88 W · 113 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No59c2,360$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.1313754%74 W · 63 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28022551.6%116 W · 109 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No68c1,943$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.4111772.6%85 W · 32 L+28.2wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+67.7%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xf679…edb3backed Yes32c1,889$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.951250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No67c1,764$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.561553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No64c1,458$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.1517543.4%76 W · 99 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed Yes35c1,417$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Yes16c1,169$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.221921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Yes32c1,032$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+43.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No64c984$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.764261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6231…3f29backed No66c948$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes80c940.66$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.7128445.4%129 W · 155 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes32c938$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.4132843.6%143 W · 185 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes60c934$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.382,53845.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes35c838$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5435635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No68c752$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.363551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed No65c565$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.254459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+39.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No73c556.56$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.291520%3 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-56.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No53c547.67$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.535848.3%28 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No65c527.53$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6628556.1%160 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed No65c510.07$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ad…46fcbacked Yes31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3451060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adf…b6b1backed No66c456$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.961361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25612657.1%72 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No71c353.9$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.278169.1%56 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+30%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No76c300$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19515623.7%37 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes33c299.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.914330.2%13 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No65c291.56$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1438744.7%173 W · 214 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Yes36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e3…21d5backed No4c266.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes29c260.66$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.835754.4%31 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Yes36c250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1607450%37 W · 37 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed No69c209.26$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.398457.1%48 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes28c200$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1435125.5%13 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Yes78c185.02$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.023135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes23c179.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.371650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No65c160$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10414742.9%63 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No63c152.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3733357.4%191 W · 142 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…4446backed Yes37c152.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes36c147.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.224858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes34c146.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.032326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ab…41c1backed Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.892171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+51.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No68c119.1$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.213836.8%14 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe4d…2a47backed Yes33c106.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694522.2%10 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed No16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156243.5%27 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No73c93.63$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.032433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No65c91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8428458.1%165 W · 119 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes17c88.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2413826.1%36 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Yes34c86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.761546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3222…2823backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.332653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe782…e7d9backed Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked No65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.53727%10 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3222373.1%163 W · 60 L+20.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0e3…06f9backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes26c53.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.855525.5%14 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked No71c52.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.442839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fe6…5cdabacked Yes26c41.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb8…0f47backed No66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…3f7ebacked Yes35c37.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb41f…60b2backed Yes35c37.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa78e…cecfbacked No66c37.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No65c34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9813152.7%69 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.26946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5358…8a7cbacked No67c28.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed No69c23.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.973540%14 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.