Serie A · resolved market
Will Lecce vs. Cagliari end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x967be04268beade12e8a03c908629dcc9e937754387601c4f51891be9f3482e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 34c | 12,154$4,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,119.29 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 66c | 8,640$5,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.71 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 29c | 4,931$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 3,321$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.83 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 2,786$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.12 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 70c | 2,200$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 67c | 1,728$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.25 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…e51cbacked No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,095$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.55 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 68c | 1,030$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 32c | 999.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…e99fbacked Yes | 33c | 878.79$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 67c | 858.17$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.71 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 62c | 857.42$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 70c | 748.47$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.18 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…9aefbacked Yes | 33c | 742.42$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 56c | 720$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 68c | 703$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 700$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 32c | 699.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 34c | 458.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…d78dbacked Yes | 61c | 341.2$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 68c | 335.44$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.34 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 68c | 288$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 253.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 68c | 248.57$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 66c | 181.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 68c | 167.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 89.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 67c | 77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…15c5backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…a752backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…5e20backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked Yes | 33c | 33.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…9122backed Yes | 32c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee1…dddcbacked No | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…aa94backed No | 68c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked No | 67c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lecce vs. Cagliari end in a draw?this page
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19?Yes won
- Will Lecce win on 2025-09-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.