Serie A · resolved market
Lecce vs. Napoli: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f09d3a54d37c821f6fa00fdabf67c0076603274ae56a02f2cee2520d488a9ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 13,708$7,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,785.49 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 42c | 11,956$5,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,021.48 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 56c | 9,390$5,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,092.06 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 44c | 5,682$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 44c | 2,460$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.32 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 2,301$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.51 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 43c | 1,100$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 42c | 1,084$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 6c | 799.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…90dfbacked Under | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 56c | 693.02$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 16c | 597.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc4…d90bbacked Over | 45c | 450$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Over | 31c | 441.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Under | 56c | 338.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 60c | 336.11$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…51e2backed Under | 66c | 303.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 43c | 233.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 56c | 160.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 56c | 133.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc69…34cabacked Over | 43c | 117.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 43c | 82.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Under | 62c | 80.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…aefabacked Under | 56c | 62.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 47c | 53.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Over | 25c | 51.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…da78backed Under | 53c | 49.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…dbb0backed Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…fdc9backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…74f7backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…3b9ebacked Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 44c | 32.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…10e2backed Over | 43c | 30.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…26d1backed Over | 44c | 29.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lecce vs. Napoli: O/U 2.5this page
- Lecce vs. Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Napoli (-1.5)Lecce won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.