Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Napoli (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe113c600b8e0a7a5bb6fb0ca66a12a47db49f94937961f6e9276fe07ce0f46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lecceof Napoli, Lecce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lecce | 66c | 13,813$9,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,681.39 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Napoli | 34c | 10,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Napoli | 33c | 2,000$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…da78backed Napoli | 35c | 580$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Napoli | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Napoli | 34c | 366.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Lecce | 66c | 278.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Napoli | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lecce | 70c | 191.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc4…d90bbacked Lecce | 64c | 157.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Napoli | 33c | 124.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Napoli | 35c | 113.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Lecce | 64c | 71.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…a004backed Napoli | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed Napoli | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…8eb2backed Napoli | 36c | 59.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Lecce | 66c | 55.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Napoli | 37c | 32.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Napoli (-1.5)this page
- Lecce vs. Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lecce vs. Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.