Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b87c6c1c55cbfaa197d0ef81192d8c261c0f36f38afc238274e4571d49d148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 60c | 2,219$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 38c | 2,216$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.95 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,327$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.72 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 62c | 1,167$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Under | 1c | 1,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 40c | 999.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 39c | 883.69$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.33 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 37c | 702.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.11 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…6ea6backed Under | 40c | 615$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 61c | 532.43$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…2692backed Over | 60c | 488.8$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 61c | 446.02$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 39c | 443.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 61c | 295.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…8e84backed Over | 60c | 209$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e6…1f2dbacked Over | 60c | 205$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…e87dbacked Over | 60c | 201$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 39c | 174.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Over | 59c | 119.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aeb…0f67backed Over | 60c | 100.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 38c | 77.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 47c | 68.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Under | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 41c | 46.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Over | 60c | 33.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Under | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecb…6f9fbacked Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed Under | 41c | 24.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 60c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked Over | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-0.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.