TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x213c…618e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Earnings at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST2552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Trail Blazers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Bulls vs. Pelicansbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$13.4
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Spread: Heat (-8.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$35.1
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$19.6
Spurs vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+75.4%+$21.5
Spread: Raptors (-13.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+69.5%+$20.5
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+61.3%+$19
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+88.7%+$23.5
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+104.1%+$15.3
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+100%+$25
Grizzlies vs. Mavericksbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+66.7%+$60
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+77%+$15.44
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+51.5%+$5.27
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.07
All 25 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1650%8 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+63.9%+$9.36
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)backed Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$13.8
Panthers vs. Predatorsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+81.8%+$9
Blues vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Flyers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Flyers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)backed Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
Blue Jackets vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
Lightning vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.01
Ducks vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Wild vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+53.8%+$5.42
Canadiens vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+69.5%+$6.97
Panthers vs. Ducksbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.15
Flyers vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Bruins vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Blackhawks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$6.8
All 16 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.36per pick59cpaid-64.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Earnings — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$33.5
Will Femasys (FEMY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will DeFi Technologies (DEFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+48.4%+$30.02
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Bitcoin Depot (BTM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$23.5
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Will Oklo (OKLO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+69.5%+$20.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.02
SSC Napoli vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+138.1%+$145
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+66.7%+$6.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauffbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+51.5%+$5.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian Statebacked Appalachian State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.