TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$756,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$801,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $756,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 583 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b3d…7422backed Golden Knights53c149,498$78,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,823.0314057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning47c90,296$42,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,856.7288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning32c90,000$28,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,199.9742552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning47c56,492$26,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,940.621,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Golden Knights66c42,169$27,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,786.5914538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Golden Knights5c39,913$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.133818.4%7 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Golden Knights53c37,777$20,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,021.8121652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lightning48c30,600$14,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,91213553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Golden Knights53c27,211$14,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,411.8326344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405f…45cebacked Golden Knights40c22,831$9,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,198.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning55c20,010$11,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,949.4792848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Lightning45c17,524$7,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,628.068746%40 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning57c17,293$9,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,398.621,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning47c15,633$7,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,285.3941246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Golden Knights53c15,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,949.9910356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf918…0a2dbacked Lightning25c14,800$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,1002100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick38cpaid+200%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd4…15d8backed Golden Knights75c14,800$11,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Golden Knights70c13,722$9,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,598.122657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lightning47c13,699$6,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,260.2844848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Lightning30c13,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,1001729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Golden Knights55c13,000$7,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,150633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Lightning58c11,173$6,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,638.9640550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Golden Knights53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.9814253.5%76 W · 66 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Golden Knights55c9,937$5,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,423.5610352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning54c8,750$4,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,017.161,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lightning47c8,240$3,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,367.1928353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning48c8,000$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,18089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning46c8,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3201,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning47c7,777$3,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.81,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights52c7,751$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,036.112,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Golden Knights53c7,500$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9756737.3%25 W · 42 L-9.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights50c7,223$3,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,592.692,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning47c7,183$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,795.561,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Lightning46c6,571$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,548.3931654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Golden Knights63c6,160$3,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,911.0385464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Golden Knights53c5,239$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.2358841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lightning47c5,223$2,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.2456649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning57c5,099$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.583,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Golden Knights48c4,322$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.0141340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed6…49a1backed Golden Knights53c4,100$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.972441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Lightning46c4,100$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.976657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights56c4,066$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.7661848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Golden Knights52c4,000$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.8816241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Golden Knights53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc300…9227backed Golden Knights53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3c…324fbacked Lightning46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Golden Knights53c3,892$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.5330447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Lightning47c3,681$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.675950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb028…b0dcbacked Lightning39c3,342$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.052642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Lightning46c3,226$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.3462249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Lightning51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.184067.5%27 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Lightning65c2,896$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.933848.8%165 W · 173 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Lightning40c2,840$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.168541.2%35 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Golden Knights54c2,700$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45811946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights66c2,578$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.7599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Golden Knights53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32525446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Golden Knights13c2,398$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Golden Knights53c2,165$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.473652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lightning46c2,136$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.7737847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Golden Knights53c2,122$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Golden Knights53c2,113$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.0263249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Golden Knights54c2,111$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1305141.2%21 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75b5…140bbacked Golden Knights54c2,056$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e27…061ebacked Lightning47c2,043$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x342d…aaa1backed Lightning47c2,021$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8002…26a4backed Golden Knights54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Golden Knights53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0602227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Golden Knights55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9843743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bda…ccefbacked Golden Knights54c1,944$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c72…49dbbacked Lightning47c1,936$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d27…a044backed Golden Knights53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Golden Knights1c1,858$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.491458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Lightning47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.9861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Golden Knights69c1,601$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.0782043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Golden Knights53c1,597$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.391653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Golden Knights53c1,509$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80024749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e08…0c90backed Lightning46c1,447$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Golden Knights69c1,300$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Golden Knights53c1,297$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.415646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Golden Knights53c1,200$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.9934845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Lightning50c1,164$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.4495049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Golden Knights54c1,132$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.0257453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Golden Knights54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d11…0c08backed Golden Knights68c1,102$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.6615658.3%91 W · 65 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22e9…5e83backed Golden Knights53c1,094$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5803748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Golden Knights54c1,070$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.81030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Lightning49c1,022$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.141741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Lightning47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53032648.2%157 W · 169 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Golden Knights54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54019548.2%94 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7591…9829backed Lightning80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Golden Knights14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Golden Knights53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Lightning48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52020751.2%106 W · 101 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Golden Knights2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Golden Knights51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014539.3%57 W · 88 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Lightning47c951$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.0315448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Golden Knights53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Golden Knights54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003125.8%8 W · 23 L-7.8wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-49.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1161…ed62backed Golden Knights55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.