NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1613eef1175224cafb752591441029f28bf540b300485dfabb3137eb70eb3d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Golden Knights, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Lightning | 68c | 2,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Golden Knights | 33c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lightning | 68c | 855.13$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.64 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Golden Knights | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Golden Knights | 32c | 257$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Lightning | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…463dbacked Golden Knights | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d9…e7cebacked Golden Knights | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lightning | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Golden Knights | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Golden Knights | 33c | 147.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 67c | 142.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…de47backed Lightning | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Golden Knights | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…3be5backed Lightning | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Lightning | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. Golden KnightsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.