NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89e2e43b625a345e6cdf4d2d04c43a78d0444c98ee8648e85e80185422484b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x946c…4909backed Over | 44c | 6,995$3,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,917.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…69fabacked Under | 56c | 2,636$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…dfb4backed Under | 56c | 2,446$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa948…e45abacked Under | 56c | 1,913$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…02c1backed Under | 56c | 1,449$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe85…0628backed Over | 45c | 1,025$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 43c | 999.97$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 57c | 875.55$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.06 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 44c | 801$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.56 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 56c | 701$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.56 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…697abacked Over | 44c | 682$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…e6a4backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…3911backed Under | 56c | 575$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 43c | 568.93$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.29 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…1d73backed Under | 56c | 525$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…c307backed Over | 44c | 393$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…0c90backed Over | 44c | 374$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Under | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 68c | 149.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…cefebacked Under | 56c | 101.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee7…88dfbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…a739backed Under | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…9d96backed Under | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…df86backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 55c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. Golden KnightsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.