Earnings · resolved market
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5871c3290a5640169ce562e8b2a6bc31748027543b139fe3ee5c7e786113800d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ed5backed No | 68c | 571.47$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed Yes | 14c | 436.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 64c | 379.63$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.12 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…8d7fbacked Yes | 29c | 369.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 28c | 354.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.83 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 75c | 285.51$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.62 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 29c | 282.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.31 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed No | 67c | 271.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…339dbacked No | 72c | 238.78$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 27c | 148.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 116.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 27c | 110.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 27c | 110.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 14c | 96.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 85.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 33c | 80.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…2e25backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 35c | 66.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…3983backed Yes | 28c | 64.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +256.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 28c | 54.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…0d74backed Yes | 31c | 44.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…052fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 36c | 32.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed No | 67c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028e…8aecbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9e4ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80f…cae5backed No | 80c | 26.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…47c2backed No | 80c | 26.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…3df6backed No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e34…6767backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x264e…6f22backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b432backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked No | 73c | 19.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…544abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.