TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,767,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,019,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,767,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x583f…2dabbacked No2c1,131,671$22,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,208.531010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No1c728,382$7,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,665.7100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaff…993abacked No0c671,836$2,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No1c506,000$5,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,877.33303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked No11c485,305$53,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,345.6170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed No1c438,732$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.4352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed No8c409,074$32,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,743.93119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf920…665fbacked No1c338,782$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.8270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No1c300,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed No2c265,895$5,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,253.4570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd47f…e9dabacked No7c265,272$17,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,574.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked No1c218,685$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No2c212,666$4,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,417.283548.6%17 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca2e…19c1backed No1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48e…a144backed Yes78c199,987$155,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,896.87911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-85.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3a…338cbacked No5c185,371$8,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,601.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ceb…3cc1backed No0c166,087$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04fa…4201backed No5c158,104$7,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,280.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c8…79e2backed No10c145,000$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,499.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0533…54b7backed No5c144,610$7,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,910.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dac…7239backed No4c134,445$5,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,030.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No4c132,630$5,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,543.29392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe19b…cdc2backed No5c129,572$6,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,505.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x225b…35c1backed No1c119,380$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed No1c117,095$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes78c116,971$90,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,294.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccc…6272backed No1c113,669$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No1c111,209$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.85195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2706…cf6fbacked No5c109,759$5,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,378.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes76c108,272$82,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,183.561266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec1…489bbacked No5c105,155$5,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,297.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d81…5e90backed No1c103,744$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bd8…2517backed No1c102,083$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032b…2168backed No1c100,155$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f61…3478backed No1c99,948$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc4…05adbacked No1c98,040$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6e89backed No0c95,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe51f…fc15backed No1c94,582$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed No7c94,000$6,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,298540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes78c91,397$70,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,543.09580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2899…3f61backed No0c84,950$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f28…f002backed No1c83,667$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes77c78,695$60,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,737.43423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed No1c78,111$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes78c75,037$58,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,699.91681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c71…0821backed No0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No23c73,686$16,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,732.091513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x886b…00c0backed No2c73,135$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58de…608abacked No1c71,461$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No12c71,031$8,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,760.511833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeddb…e443backed No0c70,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…de96backed No19c68,423$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,000.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7441…5ed5backed Yes79c66,981$52,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,375.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2947…38bebacked No13c66,024$8,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,583.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…6272backed No0c65,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No20c64,046$13,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,113.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f79…aa05backed No6c63,980$4,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,07010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…88f5backed No0c63,459$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d10…957cbacked No2c62,693$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e3…686abacked No1c62,306$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes61c60,424$37,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,359.74820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb71…9f37backed No0c60,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No0c58,369$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x895f…200dbacked No4c57,694$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.93100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db6…2824backed No4c54,096$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…d9b8backed No0c54,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No5c53,867$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffe…6e47backed No0c53,620$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No1c52,986$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.19238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa607…2caebacked No1c52,800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bb…38e9backed No0c51,817$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes77c51,772$39,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,971.06922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c51,545$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,236.59643.1%2 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4c…f088backed No5c51,423$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…8927backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd0…53e5backed No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb904…4f0fbacked No4c50,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3970…1156backed No1c49,910$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba4…89efbacked No0c49,000$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…70cbbacked No1c48,682$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a7…1038backed No1c48,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a0f…bf99backed No4c47,072$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878e…a074backed No6c46,876$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.791216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1681…2fa6backed No2c45,765$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45db…2fdebacked No1c44,934$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e86…0ea2backed No3c43,868$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…1989backed No22c43,461$9,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,534.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb50…8cbabacked No3c43,272$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.48130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb28…3750backed No1c42,857$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…11a9backed No4c42,476$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe413…32d3backed No0c41,330$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed No1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1899…1bf3backed No1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6449…c0aebacked No1c38,532$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed No0c38,520$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes80c37,655$29,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,674.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf029…a292backed No0c37,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9007…9bccbacked No4c37,094$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.