Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17815081230e3b9c78b098162c33b1ffa68c4ec29c123d3d14989599e0c2e113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,065,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,427,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,065,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,805 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 14,059,288$85,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,375.46 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 11,955,230$27,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,877.15 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes | 0c | 4,281,585$12,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,285.78 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…708cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,973,105$5,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,992.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,475,423$39,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,137.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…47b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,000,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…b427backed Yes | 1c | 2,764,406$24,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,187.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,420,440$7,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,061.32 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…df30backed Yes | 0c | 2,186,999$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…ff51backed Yes | 0c | 2,105,555$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 0c | 2,007,502$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…1420backed Yes | 0c | 1,992,968$5,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,048 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes | 0c | 1,973,852$5,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,221.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb690…ecb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,746,663$14,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,248.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 1c | 1,672,580$8,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,896.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 1c | 1,578,087$10,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,773.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 1,421,502$6,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,472.08 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…4c28backed Yes | 0c | 1,316,665$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,255,539$7,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,466.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…432bbacked Yes | 0c | 1,250,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…c559backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 999,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 1c | 907,240$4,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,852.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…05acbacked Yes | 0c | 900,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…bd1cbacked Yes | 0c | 871,750$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes | 0c | 867,424$3,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,669.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 1c | 767,964$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,827.54 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 0c | 749,291$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 1c | 706,754$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…fe5dbacked Yes | 0c | 695,883$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 660,719$5,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,257.46 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…bbd1backed Yes | 0c | 604,311$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 2c | 538,719$8,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,701.25 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…b541backed Yes | 0c | 523,249$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…183cbacked Yes | 0c | 509,052$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335e…aa39backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…84c7backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…11a9backed Yes | 0c | 469,806$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 1c | 462,131$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.17 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…37f6backed Yes | 0c | 451,713$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes | 0c | 439,414$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…f687backed Yes | 0c | 434,000$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…3316backed Yes | 0c | 432,770$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 2c | 400,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes | 0c | 400,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…1de5backed Yes | 0c | 399,087$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…67e7backed Yes | 1c | 382,779$4,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,717.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 0c | 355,255$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…2fdebacked Yes | 0c | 345,970$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes | 0c | 345,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…0024backed Yes | 0c | 343,470$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 333,029$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.06 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…8b25backed Yes | 1c | 330,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebc…41bcbacked Yes | 0c | 326,010$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…eaabbacked Yes | 0c | 326,000$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked Yes | 0c | 319,999$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…a0b5backed Yes | 1c | 305,261$3,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,387.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…8db8backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…6eddbacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 297,498$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.31 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 287,500$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7e…f1bebacked Yes | 0c | 286,515$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777c…b0eebacked Yes | 0c | 286,333$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…640ebacked Yes | 1c | 281,888$4,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,221.86 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d10…957cbacked Yes | 0c | 275,924$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…cf31backed Yes | 0c | 267,240$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…34f8backed Yes | 0c | 261,482$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8f…d636backed Yes | 0c | 259,356$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b8…f409backed Yes | 0c | 252,225$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…a6b4backed Yes | 0c | 250,010$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…45e9backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…9125backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…fb98backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…1218backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a4…7d1ebacked Yes | 0c | 249,000$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f9…5021backed Yes | 0c | 248,675$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac2…977cbacked Yes | 0c | 248,670$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…b021backed Yes | 0c | 248,665$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ff…73c7backed Yes | 0c | 248,665$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…e556backed Yes | 1c | 247,988$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 1c | 241,698$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.89 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 0c | 239,956$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…f72dbacked Yes | 0c | 237,460$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2202…ea7cbacked Yes | 2c | 218,027$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…6984backed Yes | 0c | 217,750$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ba9bbacked Yes | 0c | 214,100$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…c1a1backed Yes | 1c | 206,667$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…b4e0backed Yes | 0c | 206,000$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…7897backed Yes | 0c | 203,440$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…6316backed Yes | 0c | 203,333$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…ffb9backed Yes | 0c | 200,967$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 0c | 196,859$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed Yes | 0c | 187,300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb32…9252backed Yes | 0c | 185,680$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…929dbacked Yes | 0c | 180,140$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 1c | 177,371$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…99dabacked Yes | 0c | 175,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 166,136$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 0c | 151,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.