Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35cc41270f5cdfd59b45e68ab85dc51b0b900d286a6c74ea006b8572d9ff5934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,211,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,567,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,211,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 6,104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,006,007$123,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123,686.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,729,761$54,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,447.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 3,648,062$25,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,014.14 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 1c | 2,431,594$15,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,436.11 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 9c | 2,003,892$172,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172,769.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…708cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,467,117$14,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,006.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…49c4backed Yes | 0c | 1,217,500$4,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,870 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 12c | 967,790$116,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,905.61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 0c | 888,888$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…1e14backed Yes | 2c | 804,167$17,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,140.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…d034backed Yes | 0c | 750,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…370abacked Yes | 5c | 741,247$36,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,972.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…2760backed Yes | 1c | 712,425$6,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,706.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 1c | 710,026$5,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,996.54 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…bd1cbacked Yes | 2c | 655,854$13,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,988.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…78f4backed Yes | 4c | 643,166$22,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,932.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…ff51backed Yes | 2c | 570,555$10,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,654.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d10…957cbacked Yes | 5c | 552,197$25,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,073.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…e129backed Yes | 5c | 550,228$26,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,019.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…e043backed Yes | 1c | 505,347$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…8778backed Yes | 0c | 499,965$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes | 1c | 499,051$6,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,789.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 1c | 484,822$5,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,823.81 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…47b0backed Yes | 4c | 427,131$16,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,600.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 20c | 416,308$84,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,985.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 2c | 403,810$9,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,914.54 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 7c | 400,000$26,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,826.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 1c | 388,690$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c85…45dfbacked Yes | 0c | 386,890$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 1c | 385,000$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…f687backed Yes | 0c | 372,839$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…c559backed Yes | 1c | 365,522$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 364,800$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 4c | 340,678$13,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,886.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…fcb3backed Yes | 2c | 337,959$6,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,971.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…0024backed Yes | 2c | 335,453$6,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,564.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…c1a1backed Yes | 15c | 330,000$48,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,593.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 326,967$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.93 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…600cbacked Yes | 6c | 324,256$20,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,084.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…8db8backed Yes | 1c | 300,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 8c | 300,000$23,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,923.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…2355backed Yes | 1c | 298,373$4,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ce…fbedbacked Yes | 1c | 294,491$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 2c | 272,587$4,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,251.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…ec7dbacked Yes | 9c | 262,799$24,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,829.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0533…54b7backed Yes | 3c | 261,930$8,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,162.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…8a38backed Yes | 0c | 257,578$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…3aadbacked Yes | 0c | 245,638$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…a01cbacked Yes | 3c | 242,452$6,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,310.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9508…3f62backed Yes | 5c | 237,310$11,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,271.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…e0cfbacked Yes | 6c | 233,319$13,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,693.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 11c | 225,152$24,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,602.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 3c | 225,000$5,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,820 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 13c | 220,132$28,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,603.75 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Yes | 1c | 220,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes | 4c | 216,653$8,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,873 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…887cbacked Yes | 2c | 212,935$4,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,340.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3787…c451backed Yes | 1c | 212,084$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 0c | 210,801$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…6573backed Yes | 4c | 204,627$8,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,965.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…6f99backed Yes | 0c | 200,584$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…eb32backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…1188backed Yes | 2c | 189,172$4,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,643.66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…0747backed Yes | 2c | 187,881$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…d2fdbacked Yes | 5c | 187,184$9,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,409.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 185,230$7,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,369.49 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed Yes | 20c | 183,865$37,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,632.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…19d5backed Yes | 3c | 181,216$4,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked Yes | 10c | 179,870$17,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,986.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…e71abacked Yes | 0c | 179,251$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fd…30f0backed Yes | 1c | 178,844$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…73ecbacked Yes | 3c | 178,582$4,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…686abacked Yes | 4c | 177,376$7,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,489.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebc…41bcbacked Yes | 4c | 174,211$6,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,148.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…77afbacked Yes | 3c | 171,877$5,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,474.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…c6fcbacked Yes | 5c | 166,013$8,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,450.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9185…3e45backed Yes | 1c | 165,693$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…58a5backed Yes | 4c | 165,602$6,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,617.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…d094backed Yes | 4c | 161,839$6,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,790.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 8c | 158,354$12,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,621.07 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedac…98b9backed Yes | 5c | 153,742$7,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,915.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…0198backed Yes | 3c | 153,414$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e03…4e13backed Yes | 1c | 150,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…d038backed Yes | 4c | 148,325$6,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,521.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647f…e7efbacked Yes | 3c | 147,277$4,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f5…7acebacked Yes | 7c | 146,752$9,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Yes | 4c | 144,801$6,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,433.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…9b65backed Yes | 4c | 141,748$4,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,963.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 10c | 139,451$13,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,300.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes | 7c | 137,625$9,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,752.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ba9bbacked Yes | 2c | 137,316$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,689.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…efcdbacked Yes | 7c | 135,724$9,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,945.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 1c | 129,986$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…0468backed Yes | 4c | 129,771$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…40c3backed Yes | 5c | 129,716$6,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,362.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 10c | 127,320$13,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,077.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…5b81backed Yes | 0c | 126,250$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…2516backed Yes | 6c | 125,404$7,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a7…1038backed Yes | 4c | 124,753$4,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 0c | 124,750$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.