TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,211,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,567,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,211,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes3c4,006,007$123,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,686.411010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-86.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Yes1c3,729,761$54,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,447.61010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c3,648,062$25,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,014.14352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes1c2,431,594$15,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,436.11156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes9c2,003,892$172,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172,769.52520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…708cbacked Yes1c1,467,117$14,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,006.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c60…49c4backed Yes0c1,217,500$4,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,87040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes12c967,790$116,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,905.612321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes0c888,888$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.6680%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf546…1e14backed Yes2c804,167$17,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,140.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7407…d034backed Yes0c750,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc413…370abacked Yes5c741,247$36,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,972.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a0…2760backed Yes1c712,425$6,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,706.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes1c710,026$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,996.543548.6%17 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe607…bd1cbacked Yes2c655,854$13,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,988.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44e…78f4backed Yes4c643,166$22,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,932.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2af…ff51backed Yes2c570,555$10,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,654.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d10…957cbacked Yes5c552,197$25,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,073.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b6…e129backed Yes5c550,228$26,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,019.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb21…e043backed Yes1c505,347$3,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…8778backed Yes0c499,965$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes1c499,051$6,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,789.2580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c484,822$5,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,823.81303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…47b0backed Yes4c427,131$16,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,600.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes20c416,308$84,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,985.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes2c403,810$9,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,914.54345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes7c400,000$26,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,826.781010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes1c388,690$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c85…45dfbacked Yes0c386,890$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes1c385,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc73…f687backed Yes0c372,839$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b4…c559backed Yes1c365,522$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c364,800$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes4c340,678$13,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,886.59119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…fcb3backed Yes2c337,959$6,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,971.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b9…0024backed Yes2c335,453$6,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,564.0480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…c1a1backed Yes15c330,000$48,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,593.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c326,967$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.93320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…600cbacked Yes6c324,256$20,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,084.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ad…8db8backed Yes1c300,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes8c300,000$23,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,923.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96f…2355backed Yes1c298,373$4,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ce…fbedbacked Yes1c294,491$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38a…52c0backed Yes2c272,587$4,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,251.67812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf45…ec7dbacked Yes9c262,799$24,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,829.6360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0533…54b7backed Yes3c261,930$8,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,162.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bc…8a38backed Yes0c257,578$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b9…3aadbacked Yes0c245,638$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ae…a01cbacked Yes3c242,452$6,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,310.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9508…3f62backed Yes5c237,310$11,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,271.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ff…e0cfbacked Yes6c233,319$13,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,693.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes11c225,152$24,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,602.7470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes3c225,000$5,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8202123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes13c220,132$28,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,603.75230%0 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Yes1c220,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes4c216,653$8,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,87310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…887cbacked Yes2c212,935$4,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,340.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3787…c451backed Yes1c212,084$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes0c210,801$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3580…6573backed Yes4c204,627$8,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,965.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf215…6f99backed Yes0c200,584$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…eb32backed Yes0c200,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…1188backed Yes2c189,172$4,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,643.66147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-90.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e2e…0747backed Yes2c187,881$3,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa492…d2fdbacked Yes5c187,184$9,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,409.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c185,230$7,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,369.49392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb48e…a144backed Yes20c183,865$37,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,632.93911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-85.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x158d…19d5backed Yes3c181,216$4,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,850.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes10c179,870$17,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,986.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9d…e71abacked Yes0c179,251$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6fd…30f0backed Yes1c178,844$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick6cpaid-56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc19d…73ecbacked Yes3c178,582$4,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,578.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e3…686abacked Yes4c177,376$7,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,489.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebc…41bcbacked Yes4c174,211$6,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,148.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d5…77afbacked Yes3c171,877$5,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,474.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bd…c6fcbacked Yes5c166,013$8,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,450.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9185…3e45backed Yes1c165,693$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…58a5backed Yes4c165,602$6,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,617.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87d…d094backed Yes4c161,839$6,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,790.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes8c158,354$12,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,621.074820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedac…98b9backed Yes5c153,742$7,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,915.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x074d…0198backed Yes3c153,414$5,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,08040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e03…4e13backed Yes1c150,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e42…d038backed Yes4c148,325$6,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,521.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647f…e7efbacked Yes3c147,277$4,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,231.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f5…7acebacked Yes7c146,752$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,99910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Yes4c144,801$6,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,433.2550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d08…9b65backed Yes4c141,748$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,963.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Yes10c139,451$13,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,300.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes7c137,625$9,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,752.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ba9bbacked Yes2c137,316$2,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,689.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c8…efcdbacked Yes7c135,724$9,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,945.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fe…8509backed Yes1c129,986$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c28…0468backed Yes4c129,771$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a17…40c3backed Yes5c129,716$6,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,362.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes10c127,320$13,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,077.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…5b81backed Yes0c126,250$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55b…2516backed Yes6c125,404$7,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a7…1038backed Yes4c124,753$4,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,680.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes0c124,750$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.