Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6c69d91b21cbbea08a13d0ad51c0e96a956045aaadc77bce507c6b0475b66e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,455,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,178,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,455,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 34,266,262$52,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,879.71 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 15,616,050$105,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105,137.03 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 7,761,143$17,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,761.12 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…708cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,970,577$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 3,902,234$15,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,351.35 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 3,711,714$6,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,655.28 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921d…efb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,860,000$17,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 0c | 1,840,700$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.7 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3312backed Yes | 0c | 1,792,000$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes | 0c | 1,750,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 0c | 1,568,483$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…e480backed Yes | 0c | 1,289,427$4,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,178.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…2517backed Yes | 0c | 1,192,000$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…45e9backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…c559backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12dd…d701backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 999,917$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.75 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb62d…715fbacked Yes | 0c | 995,040$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes | 0c | 900,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…6ab7backed Yes | 0c | 771,385$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked Yes | 0c | 729,990$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes | 0c | 711,897$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 0c | 709,990$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…740bbacked Yes | 1c | 708,000$6,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,984 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2c95backed Yes | 0c | 660,512$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…8db8backed Yes | 0c | 600,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 597,798$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.6 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes | 0c | 570,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…f002backed Yes | 0c | 501,350$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…b739backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 0c | 483,830$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…1ed9backed Yes | 0c | 416,500$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0113backed Yes | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes | 0c | 400,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb8…5f91backed Yes | 0c | 368,183$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 0c | 351,060$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 0c | 350,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…f687backed Yes | 0c | 346,220$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 1c | 345,000$4,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,735 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed Yes | 0c | 322,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…6403backed Yes | 0c | 314,005$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…d117backed Yes | 0c | 302,605$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…eb32backed Yes | 0c | 299,455$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e8…be6cbacked Yes | 0c | 298,500$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1a…475abacked Yes | 0c | 288,040$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes | 0c | 275,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…ceecbacked Yes | 0c | 272,000$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes | 1c | 269,207$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…7606backed Yes | 0c | 267,000$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…cb3cbacked Yes | 0c | 265,000$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…0127backed Yes | 0c | 261,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b7afbacked Yes | 0c | 255,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…e69cbacked Yes | 0c | 250,138$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8f…d636backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdc…f34abacked Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…585fbacked Yes | 0c | 250,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…fe6ebacked Yes | 0c | 249,815$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…0024backed Yes | 0c | 239,985$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 1c | 233,372$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6169…e8e0backed Yes | 0c | 231,850$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…2f1abacked Yes | 0c | 227,000$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe390…73ffbacked Yes | 0c | 223,580$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 0c | 221,110$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…839abacked Yes | 0c | 219,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…608abacked Yes | 0c | 206,000$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…6a98backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cb…ef1abacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…9768backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…9f5fbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed Yes | 1c | 200,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…545fbacked Yes | 0c | 199,830$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cf…f9f6backed Yes | 0c | 197,870$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 1c | 195,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…841ebacked Yes | 0c | 189,885$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0699…f15bbacked Yes | 0c | 187,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a8…6b2ebacked Yes | 0c | 184,597$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…88d9backed Yes | 0c | 178,650$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…b16dbacked Yes | 0c | 171,575$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…e798backed Yes | 0c | 160,500$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…7897backed Yes | 0c | 160,215$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 0c | 156,500$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…0d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 151,735$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ea…2072backed Yes | 1c | 150,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb32…9252backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…9125backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…ea02backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…aab5backed Yes | 0c | 148,815$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…fa06backed Yes | 0c | 145,960$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 144,000$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 142,000$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…1787backed Yes | 0c | 140,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de1…e20fbacked Yes | 0c | 139,000$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…ce5dbacked Yes | 0c | 129,480$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…0986backed Yes | 0c | 128,693$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad3…f9f3backed Yes | 0c | 127,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.