TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa06c…9d93

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+143.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,980
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,010
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.85
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+546.1%+$1,197.91
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$271.69
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$501.89
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,587Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,587
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.21
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$801
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+1,414.1%+$1,852.43
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$814Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,827.4%+$14,876.83
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,818Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+272.9%+$4,963.35
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$158.72
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.79
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,112.46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,300
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$257.5
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+541.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.46
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,996Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,996.26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.