Commodities · resolved market
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93908e1864c6af41f6eae75716c4b68a5dd9ccb27cc1fca7401a560639d3e483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $795,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $763,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $795,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 11c | 44,380$4,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,883.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 41,637$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 25c | 27,434$6,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,764.99 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 42c | 19,859$8,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,345.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…e20dbacked Yes | 5c | 15,933$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 11c | 10,623$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 77c | 10,100$7,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.29 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 19c | 9,293$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 8c | 9,291$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 74c | 9,248$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked Yes | 33c | 8,899$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 19c | 8,561$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,559$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…cf9dbacked Yes | 33c | 6,688$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 6c | 6,077$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 70c | 6,000$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 5c | 5,607$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 20c | 5,598$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…ed95backed Yes | 14c | 5,545$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 58c | 5,534$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 64c | 5,388$3,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 20c | 4,918$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 72c | 4,792$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.49 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 76c | 4,729$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked No | 63c | 4,460$2,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 19c | 4,188$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.3 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,105$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 32c | 3,898$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 59c | 3,858$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.37 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 77c | 3,624$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 8c | 3,571$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d8…5f64backed Yes | 32c | 3,502$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…20a8backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 57c | 3,311$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 12c | 3,270$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 55c | 3,122$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.6 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 8c | 3,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 74c | 3,064$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 61c | 3,000$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.99 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 34c | 2,933$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.83 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4ebfbacked Yes | 38c | 2,855$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,820$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 67c | 2,725$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…4369backed Yes | 18c | 2,657$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 60c | 2,642$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 38c | 2,623$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,550$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b7…f23dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,546$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…f260backed Yes | 1c | 2,513$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…a90abacked No | 80c | 2,512$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…c3babacked Yes | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 1c | 2,261$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 69c | 2,252$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 2,238$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.9 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 6c | 2,222$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…c676backed Yes | 3c | 2,220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 60c | 2,100$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 62c | 2,030$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.75 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 2,013$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 5c | 2,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 40c | 2,005$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 56c | 1,997$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.19 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 75c | 1,984$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 26c | 1,967$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,930$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes | 22c | 1,850$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 1,825$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.75 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 1,798$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…1fa0backed Yes | 42c | 1,788$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 22c | 1,784$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…7b07backed Yes | 15c | 1,784$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 66c | 1,774$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.41 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…8020backed Yes | 35c | 1,756$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,691$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 67c | 1,685$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 6c | 1,682$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 24c | 1,651$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 14c | 1,636$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…a2f8backed Yes | 34c | 1,596$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,581$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.07 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 29c | 1,581$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,516$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 7c | 1,502$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 6c | 1,488$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 63c | 1,480$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.6 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 10c | 1,471$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…8cd3backed Yes | 41c | 1,468$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…2dd9backed Yes | 8c | 1,440$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…792dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,429$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 58c | 1,393$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…0432backed Yes | 38c | 1,389$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…fcf5backed Yes | 14c | 1,383$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…e5ccbacked Yes | 23c | 1,349$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5362backed Yes | 34c | 1,294$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 33c | 1,217$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 31c | 1,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…6dc0backed Yes | 34c | 1,192$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?this page
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?No won
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.