TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$795,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$763,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $795,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x485a…21cbbacked Yes11c44,380$4,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,883.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes5c41,637$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.92128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes25c27,434$6,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,764.99180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe885…38efbacked Yes42c19,859$8,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,345.881010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85f1…e20dbacked Yes5c15,933$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes11c10,623$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.56837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No77c10,100$7,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.292321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes19c9,293$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.143023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a41…242abacked Yes8c9,291$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed No74c9,248$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.042231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe620…03acbacked Yes33c8,899$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes19c8,561$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes1c7,559$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004327.9%12 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3332…cf9dbacked Yes33c6,688$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes6c6,077$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No70c6,000$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.131546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…e457backed Yes5c5,607$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b9…a995backed Yes20c5,598$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.12728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…ed95backed Yes14c5,545$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No58c5,534$3,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.351936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No64c5,388$3,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes20c4,918$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No72c4,792$3,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.493447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+348.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No76c4,729$3,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1261040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…ea5dbacked No63c4,460$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.91650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes19c4,188$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.33116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c4,105$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.512324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes32c3,898$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No59c3,858$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.372462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+283%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x45b6…676fbacked Yes5c3,800$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.771513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-75.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No77c3,624$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.981942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes8c3,571$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d8…5f64backed Yes32c3,502$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6da…20a8backed Yes3c3,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No57c3,311$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes12c3,270$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No55c3,122$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.64235.7%15 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+72.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed Yes8c3,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No74c3,064$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.571546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No61c3,000$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.998734.5%30 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes34c2,933$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.832657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e16…4ebfbacked Yes38c2,855$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c2,820$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.75932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6584…3843backed No67c2,725$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c69…4369backed Yes18c2,657$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No60c2,642$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.222744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x462d…741cbacked Yes38c2,623$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c2,550$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.339616.7%16 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b7…f23dbacked Yes29c2,546$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b8…f260backed Yes1c2,513$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…a90abacked No80c2,512$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-21.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x934e…c3babacked Yes41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes1c2,261$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked No69c2,252$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.17650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No67c2,238$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.96246.8%29 W · 33 L+9.2wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes6c2,222$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.212227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…c676backed Yes3c2,220$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No60c2,100$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No62c2,030$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.754170.7%29 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c2,013$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.532221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes5c2,011$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes40c2,005$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7603534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No56c1,997$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.194546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No75c1,984$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes26c1,967$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.222025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Yes5c1,930$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes22c1,850$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.411266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+116.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes19c1,825$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.755527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c1,798$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Yes42c1,788$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe537…1eebbacked Yes22c1,784$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb772…7b07backed Yes15c1,784$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No66c1,774$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.415040%20 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0fc…8020backed Yes35c1,756$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes6c1,691$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No67c1,685$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.54560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes6c1,682$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes24c1,651$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes14c1,636$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.971414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-59.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc150…a2f8backed Yes34c1,596$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-81.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c1,581$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0723846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59bc…3d81backed Yes29c1,581$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.32850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes6c1,516$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.944214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e2…5c64backed Yes7c1,502$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes6c1,488$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.071513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No63c1,480$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.69745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe87f…7822backed Yes10c1,471$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcdf1…8cd3backed Yes41c1,468$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cc…2dd9backed Yes8c1,440$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8dd…792dbacked Yes35c1,429$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No58c1,393$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.912462.5%15 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6041…0432backed Yes38c1,389$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ef…fcf5backed Yes14c1,383$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5f…e5ccbacked Yes23c1,349$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.341225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4422…5362backed Yes34c1,294$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef5f…e090backed Yes33c1,217$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes31c1,200$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3724030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c29…6dc0backed Yes34c1,192$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.