Commodities · resolved market
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8beb0692e15cdfd2905e4bf5ec618bb94a66900e59ce81f9de8e378d84dd4742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $750,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $733,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $750,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 806 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 24c | 34,792$8,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,219.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 10c | 15,000$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.73 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 66c | 13,993$9,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f3…e086backed Yes | 37c | 13,396$5,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…5034backed No | 75c | 13,330$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,330.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 13,090$10,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.21 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 73c | 13,034$9,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 22c | 12,564$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775.12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 34c | 12,408$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,223.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 75c | 10,682$7,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 77c | 8,836$6,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 36c | 8,784$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.82 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…a860backed Yes | 19c | 8,018$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 9c | 8,015$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 45c | 7,563$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,371.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 55c | 7,313$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.86 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb128…cf58backed No | 73c | 6,818$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 25c | 5,962$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 30c | 5,922$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e74…03d9backed Yes | 52c | 5,760$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 73c | 5,604$4,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 70c | 5,541$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…4f9abacked Yes | 40c | 5,427$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 67c | 5,125$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 4,918$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.61 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,590$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed No | 59c | 4,400$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…8d87backed Yes | 27c | 4,316$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 4,249$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.9 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 69c | 4,158$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 72c | 4,146$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.95 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…d60bbacked Yes | 30c | 4,122$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 6c | 3,846$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 38c | 3,778$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.34 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 53c | 3,704$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 3,554$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.73 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 29c | 3,481$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.62 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 71c | 3,418$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.14 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…3c41backed No | 65c | 3,402$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 70c | 3,388$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 69c | 3,351$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 74c | 3,321$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.88 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a06dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,312$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 70c | 3,302$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.59 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 75c | 3,242$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…136abacked Yes | 31c | 3,200$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 72c | 3,181$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…2f47backed Yes | 27c | 3,104$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…89b4backed No | 66c | 3,050$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 62c | 2,847$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,842$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked No | 76c | 2,770$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 30c | 2,724$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.76 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 13c | 2,700$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 26cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 39c | 2,668$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…5d2dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,646$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…765fbacked No | 69c | 2,621$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked No | 78c | 2,500$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 44c | 2,482$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 27c | 2,481$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 59c | 2,446$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 77c | 2,432$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.62 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,400$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…b920backed Yes | 47c | 2,354$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed Yes | 20c | 2,332$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 43c | 2,332$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 78c | 2,309$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 73c | 2,200$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 38c | 2,173$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 24c | 2,159$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 75c | 2,120$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 74c | 2,094$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…660cbacked Yes | 43c | 2,073$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 26c | 2,006$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,000$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…03a2backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…10d3backed Yes | 51c | 1,952$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 17c | 1,906$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.17 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,864$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 37c | 1,839$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.86 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 76c | 1,810$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…2af0backed Yes | 25c | 1,800$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…fe18backed No | 72c | 1,800$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…a8c0backed Yes | 46c | 1,754$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed No | 54c | 1,728$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 57c | 1,677$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked No | 60c | 1,670$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 62c | 1,619$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 71c | 1,608$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.21 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 31c | 1,608$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…f53dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,552$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 60c | 1,545$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 66c | 1,519$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 50c | 1,449$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 37c | 1,437$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?this page
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?No won
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.