TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff72…cdaa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
165
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4725.5%12 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.27
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$876Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$324
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,151.76
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,639Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,638.6
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.63
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$525
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,842Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,841.51
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$9,413Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+138.9%+$13,073.92
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.62
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$4,648Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,648.39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,220
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,001.1
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,229.99
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$795Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$794.99
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$4,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,229.74
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$149
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.58
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.4
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,054Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$1,155.32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,841Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,841.25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,277Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+99%+$2,253.98
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$984Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$984
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$374.91
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+117.6%+$617.87
ChatGPT Outage by April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.08
ChatGPT Outage by April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.33
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$131.57
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$105.35
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$435.98
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$9,633Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+62.1%+$5,985.6
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$314.24
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,338Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,337.86
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$628.52
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$307.63
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$854Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$853.78
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,532.41
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+93.9%+$1,385.93
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,858Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+58.1%+$1,079.74
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+167%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,672Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+62.8%+$1,050.72
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,828Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$2,346.31
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.79
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22.65
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+2,415.3%+$480.12
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+59.6%+$219.64
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$565.56
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$245.41
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,227Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$916.87
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$125
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$28.62
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+46.5%+$228.55
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$249.77
Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$39.63
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$915Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$585
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.9
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$35.03
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,035Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$465.01
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,459Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,459
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,378.23
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Will Curtis Sliwa win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$897Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$896.71
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$84.7
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+45%+$103.17
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1090%9 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick60cpaid+59.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$600.84
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,017Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$263.35
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+78%+$143.73
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$6,098Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$3,141.6
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$3,945Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+295.4%+$11,654.89
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21,583Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+47.1%+$10,170.58
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$626Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+82.5%+$516.58
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+45.1%+$310.74
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,979Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+29.9%+$591.4
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+37%+$369.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,195.34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.84
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,197.47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,741Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,740.87
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,743Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$1,339.93
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,494Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$490.07
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.41
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,853Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+45.8%+$1,305.1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$776Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$775.86
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+88%+$125.77
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$204
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$534.17
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,502Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$592.69
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$8,296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$4,190.06
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,184Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$1,291.48
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$489.79
Will NewJeans perform again in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100.2%+$36.49
All 8 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+72.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+79.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+113.8%+$2,576.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Tallon Griekspoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$55.5
National Bank Open: Luca Van Assche vs Titouan Droguetbacked Titouan Droguet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$525
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.39
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$114.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$841Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+130.3%+$1,096.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ole Miss vs. Oklahomabacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$247.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,072Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$428
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,512Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+25%+$377.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ford Motor (F) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,050
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,481Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,481.09
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.