Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc792f8824ef9bb549a4f5d89eec898caefdd3df5a507783f80202d289e9130ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,631,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,407,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,631,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 7c | 138,932$10,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,024.32 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 9c | 133,631$12,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,666.54 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 67,237$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.42 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 10c | 58,945$5,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,623.05 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 6c | 51,139$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.83 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 50,053$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.27 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 15c | 45,781$6,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,894.84 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 2c | 45,335$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.61 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 44,974$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.62 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 10c | 29,456$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.84 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 3c | 28,506$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.82 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 7c | 25,552$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.7 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 12c | 24,740$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.06 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 9c | 18,878$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.89 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 17,545$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.37 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 6c | 16,000$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 5c | 15,523$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.06 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 14c | 15,000$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.38 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 8c | 13,222$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.09 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 11,208$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.59 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 5c | 11,192$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 9,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 19c | 8,819$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.55 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 8c | 8,819$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 8,688$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.31 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 12c | 7,292$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.72 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 7,128$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 12c | 6,552$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.8 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 9c | 6,323$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.71 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 11c | 6,105$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.32 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 5,498$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.52 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 4,905$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.93 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 4,866$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.18 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 17c | 4,832$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.28 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 4,831$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.58 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 4,483$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.14 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed Yes | 14c | 4,069$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.18 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,060$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.27 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 4,031$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 3,797$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.78 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 7c | 3,662$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…8895backed Yes | 7c | 3,389$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,243$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd3…e63ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,046$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 4c | 2,727$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 3c | 2,713$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,675$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 2,540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 2,493$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,484$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.53 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 11c | 2,442$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.03 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 19c | 2,337$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.09 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 2,227$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…67c1backed Yes | 13c | 2,201$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 8c | 2,166$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,130$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 2,106$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,088$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.31 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,078$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,840$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…19e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,676$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,660$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,628$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,622$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,578$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,545$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 12c | 1,481$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,444$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 5c | 1,364$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,275$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Yes | 7c | 1,241$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 4c | 1,216$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 11c | 1,125$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc2…3ed8backed Yes | 13c | 1,117$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 6c | 1,084$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 10c | 1,065$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,037$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,001$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 5c | 990$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 943.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 941.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…1d31backed Yes | 11c | 919.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 4c | 914.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 853.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…03debacked Yes | 2c | 823.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 12c | 802.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 9c | 713.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 13c | 680.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 4c | 643.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.