Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x053d22e12bfe8dd73b12fc1cf89858ecc0de76aede10fea3eca5c7877d8db40c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,245,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,338,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,245,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 0c | 167,521$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 7c | 145,486$10,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,087.63 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 103,161$7,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,054.88 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 11c | 80,678$8,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,563.76 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 69,485$3,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,515 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 8c | 66,600$5,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,371.44 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 4c | 59,050$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.56 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 3c | 54,968$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.38 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 1c | 44,282$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 39,419$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.46 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 36,228$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.73 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 10c | 32,190$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 8c | 30,027$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 27,686$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.7 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 4c | 25,978$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.03 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 25,777$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.46 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 8c | 25,130$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.11 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 9c | 25,000$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…889fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 8c | 21,225$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.03 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 7c | 20,509$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.87 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 20,341$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.23 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 18,638$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 17,876$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.69 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…107bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,780$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 5c | 17,051$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.11 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 16,409$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.09 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 15,804$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.52 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 5c | 15,734$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.49 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 9c | 15,112$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.83 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 7c | 14,227$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.12 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,104$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 7c | 13,419$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.52 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 8c | 13,296$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.48 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 4c | 11,667$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.8 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,327$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.03 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 11c | 10,250$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.06 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…9420backed Yes | 2c | 9,167$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed Yes | 5c | 8,997$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 15c | 8,693$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.67 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 10c | 8,555$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.52 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 3c | 8,114$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 8,056$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.73 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…2b85backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +353.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 7,290$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.09 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 6,963$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.14 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,930$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.63 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 6,710$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.42 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Yes | 10c | 6,644$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.39 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…9b38backed Yes | 0c | 6,485$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 10c | 6,233$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 4c | 6,106$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 1c | 6,002$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de6…d677backed Yes | 5c | 5,658$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 2c | 5,634$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 6c | 5,567$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,750$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.11 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62da…326dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,710$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 3c | 4,681$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,347$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 15c | 4,116$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.85 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 4,003$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 3,741$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,620$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,558$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 6c | 3,303$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 5c | 3,175$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 19c | 3,120$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 3,053$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.63 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 6c | 2,819$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…8b97backed Yes | 3c | 2,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 15c | 2,700$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.17 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 7c | 2,558$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked Yes | 10c | 2,546$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,505$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 2,445$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,424$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 5c | 2,332$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,283$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 5c | 2,250$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 16c | 2,247$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.01 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,224$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,177$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 13c | 2,176$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 5c | 2,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,949$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 15c | 1,902$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,866$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,790$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 6c | 1,780$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 5c | 1,753$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,700$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…d932backed Yes | 4c | 1,691$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +409.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.