TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9032…b5c3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.92
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.04
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$153.1
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$37.06
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$483
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$437.48
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+96.7%+$62.31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$689.25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+69.3%+$129.27
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+233.8%+$212.52
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.92
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$18.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$489
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+525%+$840
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$5,965Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+380.9%+$22,719.75
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.86
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.25
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$12.66
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+900%+$450
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,144.7%+$286.72
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$329
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$62.9
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.5
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$80.04
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+87.8%+$75.35
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$60
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.49
Will there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.99
Will Anneliese Midgley be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.07
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.9
Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+82.4%+$54.2
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$72.7
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.98
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.49
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.5
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+78.9%+$10.16
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+203%+$81.62
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$667Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+228.9%+$1,526.41
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$148
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+322.5%+$915.98
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$68
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$127.11
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+383.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+4,900%+$1,960
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$843.69
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.7
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,643.06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.89
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+217.5%+$205.5
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$245
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$642.79
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.94
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$20.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+94.1%+$227.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$138
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.