Us Midterms · resolved market
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde178aaa3800db5e3d4708a7036245023fa1d9c67f13d111ce94f0e172317f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 75c | 1,288$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.83 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 78c | 988.71$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 24c | 932.04$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.66 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 73c | 419.19$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 71c | 400$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 77c | 289.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 263.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 32c | 250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 15c | 241.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 29c | 208$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 67c | 205$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 20c | 139.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 68c | 131.46$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 75c | 123.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 18c | 101$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 76c | 85.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 72c | 77.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 66.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…a2c9backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…6b38backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…67c9backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 64c | 41.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 68c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 47c | 31.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…a4c0backed Yes | 68c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 57c | 24.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 68c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…ded8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?this page
- Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?No won
- Will Mike Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02?No won
- Will Tom Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.