Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b97e1d7bef5bd01738621e67d750b74e35be6ddc2a0b17eb5e5a04672ca074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 20c | 1,650$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 258.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f54…82fcbacked Yes | 20c | 177.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 54c | 148.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 139.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 138$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 67c | 123.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 66c | 103.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 81.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 65.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 62.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 42.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 46c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 30.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 22.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?this page
- Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02?Yes won
- Will Mike Smith be the Republican nominee for NV-02?No won
- Will Tom Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.