AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1bcc06698c334b73add34fa23d3a946bdb604118dc8ee326b40a53f367d5c26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $395,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 581 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 20c | 28,355$5,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,601.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…d7e9backed No | 66c | 21,593$14,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,396.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 25c | 14,161$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.96 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 29c | 13,328$3,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,864.89 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,675$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 34c | 8,052$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 56c | 7,777$4,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,366.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked Yes | 21c | 7,692$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…20fbbacked No | 75c | 7,689$5,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed No | 54c | 6,949$3,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,223.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 49c | 6,896$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 28c | 6,000$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 5,390$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.29 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 58c | 4,500$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 3,971$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.2 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 54c | 3,881$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.69 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 32c | 3,672$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.62 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67cf…0bd9backed Yes | 32c | 3,390$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 72c | 3,133$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.37 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 60c | 3,029$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.49 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,839$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.78 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 45c | 2,715$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.94 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7181backed Yes | 37c | 2,680$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a06…bf30backed Yes | 59c | 2,641$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 65c | 2,500$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…c300backed Yes | 59c | 2,492$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…1b0ebacked Yes | 62c | 2,395$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed Yes | 14c | 2,390$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…c8d3backed Yes | 25c | 2,304$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed No | 44c | 2,295$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,180$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 76c | 2,100$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…46a8backed No | 73c | 2,055$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…8031backed No | 41c | 2,022$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 18c | 2,019$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…7707backed No | 64c | 1,997$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…2693backed No | 64c | 1,992$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2de…6dd1backed Yes | 34c | 1,987$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 36c | 1,964$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,955$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…3b7cbacked No | 63c | 1,913$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 34c | 1,911$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 64c | 1,875$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,836$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…31acbacked No | 41c | 1,804$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 35c | 1,778$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…2378backed No | 47c | 1,753$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…37f3backed Yes | 59c | 1,698$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,582$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.91 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 1,561$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.19 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 46c | 1,550$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 48c | 1,517$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.28 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0a…43bcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,489$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 45c | 1,458$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.94 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 59c | 1,405$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.52 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 1,400$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.99 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…c083backed Yes | 59c | 1,381$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…a8fcbacked No | 71c | 1,357$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf38…21cdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,335$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,311$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.28 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked No | 71c | 1,307$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…eb23backed No | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…81b5backed Yes | 39c | 1,266$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 59c | 1,198$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,176$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.26 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 61c | 1,111$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…cfafbacked No | 58c | 1,100$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,098$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…3f31backed No | 74c | 1,070$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 48c | 1,050$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.94 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2663backed No | 40c | 1,022$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…b524backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 63c | 999.98$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…7345backed Yes | 59c | 999.93$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 38c | 900$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…2418backed No | 60c | 889.69$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 23c | 862.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 56c | 850.69$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.7 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…2d69backed Yes | 12c | 843.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…3d55backed Yes | 18c | 835.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 61c | 831.94$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.16 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…30adbacked Yes | 49c | 819.91$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed Yes | 37c | 779.24$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 80c | 756.35$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed No | 71c | 751.05$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…e0b2backed Yes | 54c | 742.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…6b77backed No | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…1a35backed No | 77c | 718.56$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…2dd5backed Yes | 57c | 714.1$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…d52fbacked No | 77c | 711.84$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed No | 44c | 708.33$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…93f8backed Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes | 41c | 699.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…49f6backed No | 74c | 699.99$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 30c | 680$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 7c | 670.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…9c7fbacked No | 56c | 669.74$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…fe67backed No | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.