TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,407 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9591…3f1fbacked Yes3c2,505$70 inLost-$69.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf748…c387backed Yes4c2,267$79 inLost-$79.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5b…9ca6backed Yes6c870.67$52 inLost-$52.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes11c799.93$88 inLost-$87.992729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c793.09$28 inLost-$28.181,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes9c753.44$64 inLost-$64.25547.3%26 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x715a…8dcbbacked Yes6c742.86$41 inLost-$41.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a6…4c83backed Yes5c646.64$33 inLost-$33.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d9…2dd5backed Yes14c502.38$71 inLost-$71.311030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes4c471.34$19 inLost-$18.8517824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes13c397.92$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes3c380.59$11 inLost-$11.421330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+71.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes12c339.42$41 inLost-$40.736536.9%24 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c302.92$12 inLost-$11.892674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3b…c63abacked Yes5c274.61$13 inLost-$13.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes11c160$18 inLost-$17.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76b…8a50backed Yes8c135.51$10 inLost-$10.372133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes10c120$12 inLost-$12.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No74c114.33$85 inWon+$29.7330127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3550…f7ffbacked Yes12c113$14 inLost-$13.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost-$111811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes14c79.99$11 inLost-$11.2836%5 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x306b…179ebacked Yes18c79.99$14 inLost-$14.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.