AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bc721516922d9319293bbb2eeb8b11b3e20495c3aab31964ea8984879bcdfee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 12c | 11,898$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.07 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 3c | 6,810$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 15c | 5,109$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda55…376dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 13c | 3,305$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 2,668$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.7 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 17c | 1,989$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 17c | 1,964$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.63 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed Yes | 11c | 1,904$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 9c | 1,710$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,563$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.72 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…389dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked No | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 16c | 1,206$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 22c | 1,113$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…2dd5backed Yes | 16c | 1,014$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6953…3104backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…2ca8backed Yes | 11c | 806.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 22c | 784.29$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 15c | 741.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 17c | 710.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 80c | 700$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…81bfbacked Yes | 12c | 698.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked Yes | 2c | 686.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…4c83backed Yes | 24c | 673.83$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 78c | 600$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…7e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 596.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 567.5$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f1…42e0backed Yes | 10c | 566.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 12c | 547.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Yes | 15c | 534.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 520$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 494.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 9c | 490.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 12c | 453.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 439.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x715a…8dcbbacked Yes | 5c | 366.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 14c | 360.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 355.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 12c | 340.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 33c | 332.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128b…9ccfbacked Yes | 24c | 313.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…6fa5backed Yes | 20c | 310.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 79c | 299.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…ccfbbacked Yes | 17c | 294.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 277.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 56c | 269.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked No | 79c | 258.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 17c | 258.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…3939backed Yes | 19c | 250.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…86f3backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…d296backed Yes | 21c | 227.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…ee13backed Yes | 14c | 214.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 14c | 209$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…48c4backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 17c | 198.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 13c | 195.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 13c | 186.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 13c | 157.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 14c | 150.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…8f05backed Yes | 67c | 149.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 141.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 16c | 131.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…2702backed No | 77c | 130.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…f57cbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…b41fbacked Yes | 16c | 115.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 11c | 112.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…d342backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…c3debacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…0a8cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…232dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…1c98backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 11c | 97.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 12c | 93.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 11c | 89.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…5e70backed No | 75c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…d5dbbacked Yes | 14c | 71.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 18c | 61.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…0224backed Yes | 31c | 48.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcd…7af6backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.