AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc0bb57ee346789b3924da41a290bec8841eb33c4a93c880bda94a185f3c8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29bb…3aa6backed No | 1c | 19,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 7c | 13,501$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…1f99backed No | 8c | 12,539$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 5c | 8,511$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…d0e2backed No | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 31c | 6,334$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 4c | 4,112$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 7c | 4,103$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed No | 5c | 3,141$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 73c | 3,000$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 22c | 3,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d4a1backed No | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 4c | 2,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 28c | 2,208$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…2467backed No | 4c | 2,102$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 2,075$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 5c | 2,015$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…b6c4backed No | 4c | 1,868$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…4686backed No | 6c | 1,700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,644$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 5c | 1,624$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…eb6dbacked No | 7c | 1,531$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…05c2backed No | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…acd9backed No | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,338$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…3f28backed No | 16c | 1,289$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 8c | 1,230$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 12c | 1,186$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 5c | 1,099$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 3c | 1,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 22c | 1,042$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 7c | 1,034$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 1,013$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…15e6backed No | 10c | 999.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 72c | 997.67$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked No | 7c | 954.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…3d88backed No | 6c | 945.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 4c | 910.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked Yes | 74c | 885.92$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.92 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 5c | 827.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…1fdabacked No | 7c | 757.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 4c | 691$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 5c | 672.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked No | 4c | 667.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 660.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 5c | 637.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 607.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…fdbabacked Yes | 74c | 538.3$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…1c1ebacked No | 5c | 534.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…5757backed No | 6c | 502.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 11c | 497$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 476.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 5c | 468$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 4c | 449.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 448.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…bdc9backed No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…b2c2backed No | 5c | 389.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…ac4dbacked No | 9c | 361$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 10c | 359.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…b47dbacked No | 6c | 356.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 340.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 25c | 340$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…11a1backed No | 9c | 337.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 67c | 303.02$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…1c1fbacked No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…d0b5backed No | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…ce47backed No | 7c | 299.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 6c | 295.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 77c | 261.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…2317backed No | 21c | 242.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 5c | 207.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6514…3e5bbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 74c | 197.58$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…8485backed No | 6c | 179.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…7be2backed Yes | 80c | 161.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…a4b8backed No | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…9c7fbacked No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…749cbacked No | 8c | 149.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…ae32backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 18c | 93.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…9330backed Yes | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 13c | 78.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…d43ebacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248b…c826backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…81c5backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 66.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 28c | 65.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.