AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e26f6d0c5f621011ae53140fd27c0ce3b965c8b3a6920eb9f064868a4a5a88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 1c | 15,796$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 9c | 14,171$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.21 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 0c | 12,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 9,768$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.63 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 3c | 8,266$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 3c | 6,099$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 4c | 4,644$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 3,890$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…acd9backed No | 3c | 3,609$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…d0b5backed No | 8c | 3,056$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed No | 4c | 3,007$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked No | 3c | 3,006$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d4a1backed No | 4c | 2,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 3c | 2,638$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,201$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,126$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 3c | 2,086$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 5c | 1,927$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 3c | 1,862$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 1,698$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,689$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…1c1fbacked No | 3c | 1,375$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,341$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 1,168$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 3c | 1,106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,046$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e7…5d74backed No | 4c | 979.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 851.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…5f55backed No | 8c | 800$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 4c | 727.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…5bc6backed No | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 2c | 699.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…b2c2backed No | 3c | 653.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed No | 5c | 640.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d331backed No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 2c | 583.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 2c | 567.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 3c | 499.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 367.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…f4eabacked No | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 4c | 308.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…79f4backed No | 4c | 252.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 12c | 112.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…2317backed No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.