AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6c5f24da6e0a987c4b5cd73d3b341152ada808416a5d9409393676d821fc6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $330,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $332,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39f0…2c5dbacked No | 16c | 30,980$4,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,816.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 14,859$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 33c | 9,076$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 5c | 6,231$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.99 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed No | 11c | 5,700$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,871$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 7c | 4,099$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 3,859$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.67 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…7101backed No | 13c | 3,014$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 28c | 3,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 14c | 2,969$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.86 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 10c | 2,646$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.46 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6703…9dc5backed No | 18c | 2,580$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…1f99backed No | 13c | 2,559$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 2,450$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.87 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 13c | 2,162$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.87 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…efccbacked No | 14c | 2,039$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 14c | 1,900$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 1,811$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…4686backed No | 9c | 1,800$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…a547backed No | 20c | 1,700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 78c | 1,532$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 20c | 1,501$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 11c | 1,498$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 76c | 1,478$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0e25backed No | 10c | 1,429$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 12c | 1,397$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.22 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked No | 17c | 1,390$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 13c | 1,300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…730abacked Yes | 77c | 1,298$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…8b2cbacked No | 26c | 1,263$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…46cdbacked No | 8c | 1,246$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 1,243$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,199$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…9c6abacked No | 33c | 1,196$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…3f28backed No | 26c | 1,192$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 1,164$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…d0b5backed No | 14c | 1,152$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 2c | 1,102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,101$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.73 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 15c | 1,074$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 11c | 1,051$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 27c | 989.66$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 32c | 987$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked No | 13c | 960.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 11c | 882.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221c…d3c1backed No | 11c | 860.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 8c | 859.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 18c | 832.1$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked No | 11c | 805.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 14c | 798.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 32c | 729.53$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 714.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…b2c2backed No | 14c | 704.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 77c | 673.2$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 15c | 666.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 64c | 659.18$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d4a1backed No | 16c | 641.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 61c | 629.26$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.82 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 5c | 602.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed No | 7c | 598.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 16c | 593.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 67c | 577.31$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 14c | 534.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 18c | 528.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 26c | 515.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 24c | 514.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb065…a104backed No | 12c | 508.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 501.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231b…73dfbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…0a77backed No | 19c | 493.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed No | 6c | 492.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…d52fbacked Yes | 63c | 487.62$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…a1d2backed No | 11c | 450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 10c | 447.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…ac8dbacked No | 68c | 443.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 437.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…6888backed Yes | 76c | 415.76$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked No | 14c | 414.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 40c | 409.83$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f4…e110backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…ddf4backed No | 26c | 392.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…15e6backed No | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 14c | 367.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…9db4backed Yes | 76c | 364.8$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…7729backed No | 14c | 360.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…0f32backed No | 7c | 360.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 24c | 350$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 11c | 342.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…17adbacked Yes | 59c | 340.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…1546backed Yes | 60c | 340$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 6c | 324.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…497dbacked No | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabec…b350backed No | 14c | 307.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.