AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dea03c0c0ef48cbe175108be3c7ee0cc4d095558b5167327bc5f780fcccc0ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 7c | 7,589$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.23 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,101$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 9c | 3,898$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb5…50c3backed Yes | 6c | 3,778$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,226$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 2,179$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…30adbacked Yes | 29c | 2,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…d7e9backed No | 76c | 1,959$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 12c | 1,876$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed No | 75c | 1,660$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 17c | 1,265$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.07 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,092$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7181backed Yes | 24c | 1,057$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 22c | 1,001$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…5943backed Yes | 3c | 987.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…a8fcbacked No | 79c | 899.18$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…1752backed Yes | 30c | 894.08$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 872.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…e1ccbacked Yes | 5c | 851.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…5650backed Yes | 7c | 850.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…6a24backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 810.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 20c | 695.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 8c | 648.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 6c | 642.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 79c | 635.03$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 550$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3f…fec2backed No | 74c | 534.6$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…3d55backed Yes | 7c | 514.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…f9e0backed Yes | 14c | 474.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 13c | 467.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…5e39backed Yes | 4c | 430$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 11c | 417$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…fcc7backed Yes | 5c | 365.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…c18ebacked Yes | 5c | 362.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 6c | 358.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 6c | 342$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…2e5abacked Yes | 4c | 325.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 324.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 322.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked No | 70c | 300$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…93f8backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 70c | 269.01$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…f721backed Yes | 20c | 251.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 248.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 70c | 243.66$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 71c | 240$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 19c | 232.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 213.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 42c | 210$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 26c | 205.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…970ebacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 193.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…677abacked Yes | 11c | 190.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 183.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 16c | 182.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…679ebacked Yes | 22c | 180.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 178.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…d3c7backed Yes | 36c | 166.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 21c | 164.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…2378backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…addabacked Yes | 32c | 155.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 23c | 146.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 23c | 145.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 143.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 34c | 139.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 137.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 8c | 131.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 37c | 122.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…2dd5backed Yes | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…84e8backed Yes | 13c | 108.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…148dbacked Yes | 17c | 105.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…2ca8backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 103.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 102.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…a390backed No | 74c | 101.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 71c | 100.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…a9dbbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…6577backed No | 55c | 90.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…001ebacked Yes | 21c | 89.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…2ddcbacked Yes | 33c | 85.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…6846backed Yes | 26c | 75.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…ab86backed Yes | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…458abacked No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d1…668dbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 61c | 56.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 80c | 56.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…ad6cbacked Yes | 41c | 55.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 20c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 42c | 51.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.