TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x399b…35cd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Commodities, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 58 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT3447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.98
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.97
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+175.6%+$107.39
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,258.3%+$501.74
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+116.8%+$70.04
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+86.2%+$46.3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+308.8%+$98.2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+88.2%+$196.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+106.9%+$155
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.42
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$24
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.9
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+447.4%+$49.99
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.5
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+59%+$83.5
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.6
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$286
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$241.39
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+733.3%+$88
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$929Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$928.61
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$373.46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+418.1%+$355.09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$12.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+79.8%+$35.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$15.1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.4
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+48.1%+$13
All 14 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+123.6%+$193.49
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$74.19
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$70
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.98
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$17.4
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+91.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.98
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$23.8
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+1,150%+$276
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+561.1%+$186.72
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$39
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$971Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.87
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$124
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$56.5
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$89
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.