Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecea38a53ad7cfdac4626773ade7e33e948eea9bc42644cd035d7e3bc5cd511

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,306,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,035,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,306,297 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,071 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x283f…4d79backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	0c	46,757$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	50c	32,058$16,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,073.25	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	47c	19,101$8,912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,912.32	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	31c	17,010$5,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,301.72	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	15,581$1,135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,134.86	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	30c	15,244$4,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,630.77	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	55c	15,197$8,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,346.16	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	32c	14,353$4,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,534.31	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	13,328$1,781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,780.75	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	48c	12,985$6,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,240.14	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	25c	11,826$2,955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,955.06	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	40c	10,493$4,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,199.42	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2909…0b10backed Yes	3c	10,411$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	55c	10,212$5,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,657.72	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	36c	9,668$3,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,487.15	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	26c	9,045$2,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,332.62	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	77c	8,324$6,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,930.74	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	48c	8,070$3,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,859.53	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	32c	7,885$2,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,546.01	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	64c	7,794$5,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,790.94	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	39c	6,344$2,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,467.39	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	58c	6,285$3,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,609.74	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	63c	6,205$3,891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,891.46	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	6,073$1,167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,167.03	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	60c	5,982$3,602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,380.15	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	40c	5,956$2,386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,386.01	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	44c	5,684$2,519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,518.55	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	26c	5,548$1,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,460.01	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	9c	5,317$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.71	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	37c	5,302$1,951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,951.08	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	60c	5,137$3,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,077.89	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	64c	5,106$3,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,280	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	5,093$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.87	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	50c	5,072$2,538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,533.59	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	71c	4,878$3,467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,410.91	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Yes	9c	4,578$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.03	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	46c	4,369$2,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,029.93	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	59c	4,290$2,523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,522.53	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	62c	4,288$2,657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,631.4	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x230d…1cddbacked Yes	47c	4,209$1,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,978.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfec…4dc7backed No	72c	4,147$2,994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,153.15	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84bd…6d83backed Yes	54c	4,074$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	35c	3,735$1,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,320.56	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	3,711$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.28	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	30c	3,700$1,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,112	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	28c	3,690$1,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,026.05	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	41c	3,663$1,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,503.4	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	43c	3,659$1,582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,077.15	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	48c	3,462$1,666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,665.65	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	3,418$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.83	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	33c	3,414$1,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,136.8	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9427…10fbbacked Yes	47c	3,390$1,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,593.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	53c	3,361$1,786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,786.46	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	9c	3,241$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.86	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes	51c	3,195$1,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,618.81	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cea…21e0backed Yes	35c	3,173$1,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,104.08	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	22c	3,160$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.61	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6343…b430backed Yes	54c	3,138$1,694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,694.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	50c	3,063$1,537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,536.92	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	50c	2,871$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421.7	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc543…e305backed Yes	50c	2,825$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,404.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No	77c	2,819$2,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.22	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3538…c269backed Yes	18c	2,805$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b36…92b1backed Yes	47c	2,683$1,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255.92	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+128.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	50c	2,680$1,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,339.31	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes	9c	2,666$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.94	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.20per pick	9cpaid	+299.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	14c	2,653$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.63	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	34c	2,615$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.24	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	9c	2,601$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8519…f76fbacked Yes	54c	2,600$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	19c	2,599$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.53	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	59c	2,566$1,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,524.72	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	19c	2,531$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.78	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x056d…855abacked Yes	23c	2,506$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.92	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	9c	2,502$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.22	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	25c	2,500$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.99	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	31c	2,476$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.06	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	28c	2,389$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.02	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b2…6c6cbacked Yes	54c	2,343$1,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,264.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	10c	2,309$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.42	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	37c	2,305$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.13	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	6c	2,300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,300$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.55	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf756…9d27backed Yes	47c	2,298$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37e…c729backed Yes	47c	2,276$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,069.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0774…8ab1backed Yes	47c	2,233$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes	36c	2,222$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.61	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-82.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	24c	2,183$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	20c	2,148$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.51	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	64c	2,144$1,378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.56	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	23c	2,144$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.33	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	9c	2,136$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.87	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	11c	2,122$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.19	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed No	51c	2,118$1,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,037.09	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	2,099$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.96	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	11c	2,097$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.7	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	17c	2,091$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.61	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	25c	2,080$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.39	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d3…17adbacked Yes	14c	2,027$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event