Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85fc2b3ade14cd3e8354678437518743bae81f65c3c9326a8c921b6411eb0e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $628,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $628,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 12,975$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…4c75backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 2c | 9,029$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 0c | 8,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,579$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 9c | 6,819$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.06 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 6,775$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.89 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 5,556$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 3c | 5,373$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.11 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…ea8bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…98efbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,647$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 4c | 4,436$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 4,421$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 5c | 4,094$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 3,988$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5628backed Yes | 1c | 3,892$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +255%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 4c | 3,512$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,999$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,924$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 2,818$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 2,782$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 2,725$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 1c | 2,680$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,467$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 3c | 2,280$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 1c | 2,107$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 2c | 2,081$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 2,080$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,901$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 2c | 1,824$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,792$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 2c | 1,707$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,629$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,605$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 4c | 1,535$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 7c | 1,505$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 9c | 1,342$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,332$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,323$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 11c | 1,309$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 3c | 1,277$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,197$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,196$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 1c | 1,159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 1,144$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,012$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 9.1%10 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 158 | 12%19 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 6c | 999.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 3c | 991.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…cd5dbacked Yes | 3c | 963.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes | 3c | 899.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 846.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes | 3c | 840$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 3c | 823.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 2c | 816.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…d371backed Yes | 4c | 798.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…b307backed Yes | 2c | 789.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked Yes | 3c | 779.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 776.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…efe1backed Yes | 2c | 755.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x181e…ace0backed Yes | 3c | 737.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…5a62backed Yes | 3c | 712.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 678.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes | 4c | 662.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 13.2%27 W · 177 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 2c | 654.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 5c | 654.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 2c | 648.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…1354backed Yes | 2c | 643.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565d…5a48backed Yes | 3c | 627$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes | 3c | 597.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 3c | 588.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 9c | 568.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 7c | 539.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes | 4c | 522.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 4c | 513.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…4b67backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.