TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x543c…edab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst College Football at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+205.4%+$67.26
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+69.5%+$16.4
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$31.7
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$13.32
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$18.42
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$93.89
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$51
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$192
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$91
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.71
Israel military action against Iraq before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$54.32
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick23cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Racing Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$77
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama vs. South Carolinabacked South Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.8
California vs. Virginia Techbacked California · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 74°F or higher on January 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+38.9%+$20.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jiangxi Open: Yue Yuan vs Elena Pridankinabacked Pridankina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$32.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$67.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.