Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3946a837a0d9e90e62d73cf01bf86b981217b58f751467d580c072d1664f29df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 3,137$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.63 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 2c | 952.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 732.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 29c | 485.42$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 24c | 388.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 40c | 259.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked No | 65c | 258.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 71c | 202.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 186.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 30c | 179.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…8b56backed No | 57c | 175.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 31c | 173$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…6b4ebacked No | 59c | 168.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…310dbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…729ebacked No | 68c | 147.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fac…b236backed No | 73c | 137.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…0783backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…3dfebacked No | 75c | 100.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…d90bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…927ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…ba16backed No | 65c | 84.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca6…0d08backed No | 70c | 79.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc031…2c43backed No | 66c | 78.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…66ebbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…f73dbacked No | 68c | 69.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 66.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…ffd0backed No | 70c | 61.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…8355backed No | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…7996backed No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 27c | 57.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 59c | 50.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 36c | 49.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…743bbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f54…93d5backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…3bb6backed Yes | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 60c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed No | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…71ffbacked No | 35c | 31.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…adf7backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe192…7689backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…22c4backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…4fc5backed No | 60c | 28.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…b9aebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…e1c0backed No | 69c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…d8b1backed No | 80c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked No | 64c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…00a9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1884…2b0abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6624…2a4dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…7bacbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…3790backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…8177backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3181…da1bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…faf9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…cc42backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…d54ebacked No | 75c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…abbabacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…dd60backed No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…a4c0backed No | 72c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…dcc3backed No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.