TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7da6…4ff3backed No1c21,312$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed No11c11,377$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+690.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes70c9,212$6,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.7514335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No15c5,984$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.7917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No32c3,500$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.033148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3909626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No22c2,625$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.6138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No16c1,759$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.5751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No12c1,518$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.845042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c3…36eebacked No15c1,512$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.572450%12 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No15c1,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.993534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No26c1,169$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.727047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No15c1,136$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.937632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No39c1,080$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No33c1,041$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34e5…7dd4backed No36c884.9$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e0…58f0backed No5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed No5c695.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a47…88f2backed Yes78c637.77$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab5…b081backed No71c599.99$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No15c558.14$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.727635.5%27 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.959057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes73c467.61$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12521034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No58c440.39$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.026240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34c3…aa41backed No13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No23c381.32$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.138530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No21c345$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes32c330.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1535355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No14c330.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No24c301.49$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2317934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No24c299.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2430…36f4backed No43c284.42$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.541250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No27c243.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6719428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343c…608abacked No42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No75c230.18$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.981957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80df…3407backed No75c227.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.051546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf54…cdcabacked No28c225.42$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0787…d81fbacked No16c222.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No15c211.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.031879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes44c203.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.463228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb3d7…61b8backed No11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.181353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes78c195.24$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9530635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No11c191.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes49c188.46$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.262035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes25c180.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd12d…0ac1backed No28c179.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No21c170.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.85837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No18c163.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.241,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c162.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4234432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdda9…35c9backed No69c158.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes22c157.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.589334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes71c154.37$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.883933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf837…2814backed No51c145.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.99944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f3…4717backed No40c140$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed No26c128.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.131338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes39c121.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.029955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No21c120.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3823525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No71c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e18…cfd0backed No65c119$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes59c113.05$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.46657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes52c110$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.36944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No20c106.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.265330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8d3c…6d32backed Yes76c105.24$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdb…d13abacked No62c103.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.163969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf180…0053backed Yes38c99.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.182548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb473…e9c9backed No79c99.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid+45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No20c95.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0213935.3%49 W · 90 L-14.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes64c88.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.961553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+1,042.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No54c87.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.727354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes49c85.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.553348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596c…c0a6backed No53c75.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes51c72.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.597353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed No47c72.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.775540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed No41c69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.044264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38f6…d059backed No54c64.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x593e…8cc6backed No27c62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6573…106bbacked No63c61.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae1…7a4dbacked No42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed No31c57.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.763135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked No25c57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66bc…f66bbacked No59c55.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+72.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes51c55.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6994…9631backed Yes43c54.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No58c54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.329410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes29c52.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.021040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+83.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d7…9b78backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391e…ec9abacked No61c49.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes37c48.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.073534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.