Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee34804bb863a5e3da971bb5fcf0797a15ac37c3fb096176bfbc1deff9df68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed No | 1c | 21,312$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…8833backed No | 11c | 11,377$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +690.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 70c | 9,212$6,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.75 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 15c | 5,984$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.79 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 32c | 3,500$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.03 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 22c | 2,625$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.61 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 16c | 1,759$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.57 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 12c | 1,518$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked No | 15c | 1,512$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 26c | 1,169$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.7 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 15c | 1,136$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.93 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 39c | 1,080$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 33c | 1,041$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.38 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed No | 36c | 884.9$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…58f0backed No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 5c | 695.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a47…88f2backed Yes | 78c | 637.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…b081backed No | 71c | 599.99$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 15c | 558.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 73c | 467.61$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 58c | 440.39$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.02 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…aa41backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 23c | 381.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 21c | 345$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 32c | 330.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.15 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 14c | 330.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 24c | 301.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 24c | 299.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed No | 43c | 284.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 27c | 243.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 75c | 230.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 75c | 227.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…cdcabacked No | 28c | 225.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked No | 16c | 222.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 15c | 211.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 44c | 203.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 78c | 195.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 191.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 49c | 188.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 180.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…0ac1backed No | 28c | 179.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 21c | 170.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 163.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 162.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…35c9backed No | 69c | 158.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 22c | 157.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 71c | 154.37$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed No | 51c | 145.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…4717backed No | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed No | 26c | 128.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 39c | 121.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 21c | 120.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 71c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…cfd0backed No | 65c | 119$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 59c | 113.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 20c | 106.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…6d32backed Yes | 76c | 105.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked No | 62c | 103.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 38c | 99.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…e9c9backed No | 79c | 99.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 20c | 95.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -14.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed Yes | 64c | 88.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 54c | 87.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 49c | 85.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596c…c0a6backed No | 53c | 75.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 51c | 72.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed No | 47c | 72.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…d059backed No | 54c | 64.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…8cc6backed No | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…106bbacked No | 63c | 61.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 31c | 57.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 25c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…f66bbacked No | 59c | 55.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 55.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…9631backed Yes | 43c | 54.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 29c | 52.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 61c | 49.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 37c | 48.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.