TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f96…a226

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
219
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT8051.3%41 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$16.26
Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8
Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$5.49
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+89.6%+$11.4
Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.23
Will there be no next Transport Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+183.7%+$34.13
Will there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.2
Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.35
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.55
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$83.25
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.47
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.2
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.03
Will John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+28%+$5.94
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.56
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+198.1%+$47.52
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.59
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.18
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$6
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.26
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$194.73
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$10.25
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$25.83
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT4264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$5.48
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$30.27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$14.99
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.24
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$13.1
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.32
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$25.71
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.97
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$41.11
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$16.73
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$9.5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+49.2%+$17.76
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+28.2%+$4.23
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$80.36
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$15.61
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$10.78
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+50%+$44.34
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+53%+$138.59
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$22.42
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$71.34
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$52.09
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$22.41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$24.8
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.79
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$89.62
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.04
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+68.7%+$13.73
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+143.4%+$49.06
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$52.08
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+225.5%+$42.85
Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15.5
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+95.6%+$66.9
Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+28.2%+$11.28
All 19 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1275%9 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Will Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.8
Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+27%+$7.45
Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+34.3%+$5.23
Will Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$27.58
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Tradeweb Markets (TW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+44.9%+$12.21
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+211.8%+$24.01
Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+34.2%+$10.25
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+25%+$4
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.28
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-63.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.55
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$4.92
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.43
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15.72
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+36.8%+$24.11
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$32.68
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.3
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$60.84
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$13.1
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+38.3%+$5.54
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-79.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST5100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+114.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$53.03
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.