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World Politics · resolved market

Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4344…f90dbacked No74c3,999$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.955149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes63c3,402$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.221533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes68c3,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0401942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed No78c2,531$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.481776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick45cpaid+53.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8608…27aabacked Yes7c2,500$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes28c2,290$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.4815932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,135$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.981,43710.2%147 W · 1,290 L-4.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd6…963bbacked Yes8c2,004$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No57c1,816$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.919950.5%50 W · 49 L+16.5wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+40.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed No38c1,565$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.314623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No72c1,344$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.4611435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No29c1,277$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.473633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No38c1,061$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6621250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No61c989.12$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.342030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30455334.5%191 W · 362 L-38.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bb5…8ab9backed No32c800$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5441258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c690.59$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.8625151.8%130 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No32c597.22$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.117027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes61c595.85$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.5515137.1%56 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2107…8a8abacked Yes15c595.59$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31535854.7%196 W · 162 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefc…9408backed Yes9c500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked No43c464.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.032544%11 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes39c437.93$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6617730.5%54 W · 123 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No37c413$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.1912039.2%47 W · 73 L-13.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x051f…0690backed Yes79c399.99$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No69c321.44$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.353243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No45c303.85$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.438743.7%38 W · 49 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes70c301.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-47.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No38c290$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.11729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes75c267.29$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.352934.5%10 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5979…bbcebacked Yes17c264.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.55446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf097…f868backed Yes11c245$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c244.62$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2889448.3%432 W · 462 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No57c226.44$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.374100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed Yes43c208$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe428…50bfbacked Yes37c201$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10046830.1%141 W · 327 L-20.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No37c195$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes43c188.92$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.066829.4%20 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c184.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.011,34444.3%595 W · 749 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes68c180$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes79c179.37$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3932434.9%113 W · 211 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed Yes57c174.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.558252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No78c166.86$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.711533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No53c160$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.213268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9519262.5%120 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.54045%18 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc2…fbfdbacked Yes40c149.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf143…4ef2backed No58c144.57$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.724100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No47c133.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6512030%36 W · 84 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed No48c130$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.11353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No44c125.59$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5719045.3%86 W · 104 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No70c124.98$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.643151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes45c122.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4910941.3%45 W · 64 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No37c120$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.64250%21 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes64c114.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0211135.1%39 W · 72 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9370…107abacked Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6740%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No37c98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.749553.7%51 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…b4a7backed Yes44c89.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes13c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66858.8%40 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8026…839fbacked No60c77.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88dd…f6bebacked No56c75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No41c73.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8120764.3%133 W · 74 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes34c73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5911344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1f…4258backed No71c72.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+69.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No34c68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9223355.8%130 W · 103 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed Yes64c64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.962454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc724…3a19backed Yes79c63.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.471723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f7…db24backed Yes44c63.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x825c…dfa0backed No56c62.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.421442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+159.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4947…a7b3backed No56c62.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec49…5975backed No68c62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No36c61.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.113050%15 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.26949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d7…eb3bbacked No60c57.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.944344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes40c56.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c55.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8699417.2%171 W · 823 L-149.6wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xa44a…cd7dbacked Yes70c55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Yes72c54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.932025%5 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No28c53.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5516834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No58c51.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.724365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115851.7%30 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58939.3%35 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x172d…36cabacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.7wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-45.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xba6c…618bbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f4…04d4backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ae…e665backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fdf…a4cabacked Yes41c48.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes47c46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.775328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No41c44.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.078451.2%43 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5d8…af42backed No58c42.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+76.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No53c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.865054%27 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.