World Politics · resolved market
Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe22a1b3b71302605ba15296e997b3e8fb12a02387801638d71863f8462b50fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,083$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 9c | 813.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 690.58$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.04 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 20c | 474.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 371.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 306.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 27c | 303$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 226.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 224.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 6c | 209.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 19c | 188.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 43c | 158.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 13c | 140.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 137.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 29c | 136.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…02f5backed Yes | 37c | 117$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 16c | 106.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 25c | 79.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…79c8backed Yes | 15c | 67.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed Yes | 31c | 57.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Yes | 33c | 45.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 56c | 32.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 62c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…c0b2backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?this page
- Will Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Douglas Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Heidi Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Pat McFadden be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.