World Politics · resolved market
Will Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b704d9ed362b80c21137e6207cac5a7313dbdea254ad7a19c076ff404f658d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 65c | 5,183$3,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.45 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…d854backed Yes | 34c | 810.89$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 770$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 614.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 571.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 464$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 317$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 275.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 34c | 274.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 34c | 203.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 196.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…dbe0backed Yes | 35c | 154.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 16c | 138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…3f5fbacked Yes | 11c | 134.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 34c | 114.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 35c | 111.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…f6d2backed Yes | 35c | 111.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…c0b2backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?this page
- Will Douglas Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Heidi Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Pat McFadden be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.