World Politics · resolved market
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c526002924ad36704bb16616c579d6b55b1332ec2a3326130c5461e37e7ed12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 417.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 8c | 365.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 76c | 332.47$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 17c | 235.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 52c | 190.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…dfa0backed Yes | 23c | 148.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…c0b2backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed No | 65c | 44.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 71c | 44.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?this page
- Will Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Douglas Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Heidi Alexander be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Pat McFadden be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.