TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8c65…dcf7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
286
Categories scored
33
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Commodities, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 58 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.6
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.86
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.65
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.3
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.74
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.9
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$16.2
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$12.8
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$11.7
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$13.2
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+158.5%+$17.77
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$14.6
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+113.3%+$28.37
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT2759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.79
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+87.8%+$9.35
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+60.8%+$26.49
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$8.78
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.22
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.65
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+71%+$12.29
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$13.33
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.12
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$15.27
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+109.7%+$17.34
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.28
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.71
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.77
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+33%+$7.48
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$2.94
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$7.3
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+142.8%+$30.25
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$4.63
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
Will it Snow in Seattle this December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+170.3%+$31.5
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+67.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+88%+$11.7
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$67.14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$902Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$352.71
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.64
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+46%+$31.5
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+117%+$366.59
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.85
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$57
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+754%+$262.89
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.71
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+646.8%+$199.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.66
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.77
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$9.8
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$26
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$13
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$49.33
NBA: SGA Award Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$9.58
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$78.64
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$19.32
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+69.5%+$8.2
OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+78.6%+$11.88
Trail Blazers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Timberwolves vs. Pelicansbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15.6
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.8
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+79.6%+$13.3
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+100%+$15
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$19.66
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.73
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$18.2
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+30%+$51
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 550.0k by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.82
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$7.35
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.6
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$107.52
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+36.1%+$5.3
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+25%+$4
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$11.7
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+106.2%+$20.6
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.3
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$64
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$7.22
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$85.99
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$48
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+127.3%+$56
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$17.5
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$186.36
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.2
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.85
Will "DIGIMON BEATBREAK" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.32
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.6
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Zendaya be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Venus Williams be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will Nicole Kidman be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Officebacked The Devil Wears Prada 2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.13
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$546.55
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$19.6
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,409Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+77.8%+$1,095.47
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+185.7%+$32.5
All 16 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.6
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+103.3%+$55.9
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.39
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$19.76
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+96.9%+$137.8
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$51
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$7.5
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$18.24
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$17.6
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$3.75
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.4
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+110%+$68.1
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.85
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$25.58
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$542.82
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96%+$45.07
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$24.56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$340.3
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$10.17
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.6
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+65.7%+$35.7
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+42.9%+$5.76
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 13 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+245.5%+$120.8
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.6
Will Hyatt Hotels (H) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.5
Will Infosys (INFY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+186.7%+$178.27
Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.41
Will PG&E (PCG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+115.4%+$47.89
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.17
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$15.6
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$9.1
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+170.3%+$31.5
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24.6
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$26.8
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$33.3
Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$26
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+92.3%+$48
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.9%+$15
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+122.2%+$27.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+315.5%+$56.95
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.28
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+72.5%+$15.26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$170.02
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$33.14
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21.72
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$5.1
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+203%+$53.6
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+75.9%+$30.2
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+45.3%+$15.6
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49%+$52.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+166.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+203%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Oilers vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$35.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.62
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+130.4%+$113.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$25.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+59%+$18.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Chelsea (-1.5)backed Sunderland AFC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$8.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.