TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9362…d4a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
149
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AIlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.98
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.3
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.22
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.36
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$24.94
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$6
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$30.35
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.65
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.26
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$100
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.73
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$18.11
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.58
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
All 20 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "God" 5+ times during President Curtis E4 S1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.22
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.03
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Will "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.54
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$4
Will Tom Hiddleston appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will James Gunn appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$10.15
Will anyone say "Prophecy" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Simu Liu appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.22
Will Robert Downey Jr. appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$10.62
Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.49
Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.3
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$8.1
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.55
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.56
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.16
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.77
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.37
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.51
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$11.03
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.99
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.92
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.98
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$67.22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$19.4
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$38.04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$78.55
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.07
Will Alan Campbell be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Will there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+628.6%+$66.56
Will Louise Haigh be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$36.71
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.98
Will Beth Jones win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.62
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.24
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$10.39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$15.12
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.04
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $57 Week of July 6 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.74
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of July 6 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5.94
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of June 22 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.89
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$8.14
Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$8.87
Will Karim Benzema attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.81
Will Giorgio Chiellini attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.74
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$32.88
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Switzerland vs Algeria FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$14.76
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$37.65
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$9.16
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$23.53
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$26.67
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.16
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$26.6
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$27.66
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$27.09
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.72
Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$31.2
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.75
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$13.2
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$18.15
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.39
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$27.92
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Benjamin James finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$29.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$71.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dplus Esports Win Challengers 2026: Korea WDG Split 2backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$18.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Giantsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.