Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a20e8e1a0e8620673f99c9ec7634253e23123a45574bdbb7c40665b7c63c5a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 22c | 2,336$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.81 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…1e21backed Yes | 13c | 2,044$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Yes | 80c | 714.25$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 21c | 662$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 440.47$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.16 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 42c | 397.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 77c | 360.28$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.94 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 79c | 267$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…c11cbacked Yes | 76c | 128.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 24c | 93.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…efabbacked Yes | 80c | 61.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6638…513abacked Yes | 77c | 58.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 77c | 52.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…d627backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 24c | 43.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 69c | 34.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…1330backed Yes | 73c | 19.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.