Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5d063b3fc6656f69d2bdd6d3848d0f1b447d39bdc20a66304a4f8e80ef8acdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 38c | 2,941$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.38 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,290$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.7 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 75c | 1,074$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 60c | 970$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 80c | 640$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 626.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43b…78afbacked Yes | 4c | 518.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 65c | 309.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 48c | 293.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 273.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 239.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.61 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 22c | 180.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 151.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 135$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed Yes | 10c | 129.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…ae29backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 54c | 67.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Yes | 34c | 57.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed Yes | 24c | 51.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 66c | 43.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yes | 44c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…e918backed Yes | 74c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -63%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 58c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 57c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.