TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72f3…92d6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
195
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Earnings, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT5862.1%36 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+177.3%+$23.36
Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.01
Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.39
Will Seoul have between 80-90mm of precipitation in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Philadelphia Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will the AQI at the World Cup final be 90 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 86 and 89?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$9.8
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$16.65
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT3855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$461.54
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$480.39
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$172.98
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.53
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.83
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$572.73
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,099.36
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+81.6%+$1,387.15
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,660Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$1,097.51
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,041Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+88%+$1,796.43
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,052Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+83.9%+$882.52
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,046Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+77%+$1,576.48
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,446.9
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,392.22
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$679.79
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$504.48
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,776Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,776.12
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+42%+$235.49
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,361Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,360.94
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,932Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$1,225.95
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.2
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.37
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.2
Will Joan VonDras be the MO-02 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$28.2
Will Randy Miller be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.4
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Jonathan Treble be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Brett Newby be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Russell Fry replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.21
Will Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$15.33
Will Joe Wilson replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.41
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$22.87
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.71
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 42%-44%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 Cloud Revenue be above $23.5B?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$9.55
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+146.8%+$16
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $43B?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.96
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kim Kardashian attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$13.2
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+332.8%+$51.94
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$8.19
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Mark Carney attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$25
Will Argentina finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Argentina finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.94
Will the announcers say "Opportunity" or "Chance" 30+ times during the France vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the France vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+60%+$15
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.44
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+155.4%+$21.66
Will Elon post "President" on X this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.84
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.64
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$101.67
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.69
Chicago White Sox vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.31
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$114.75
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.95
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.58
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.04
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.36per pick58cpaid-63%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tom Hiddleston appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Prime Video announce a new project at SDCC 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will Anthony Mackie appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will "Son" be said during the next Avengers: Doomsday trailer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$119.53
Bruins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$73.35
Kings vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$114.71
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.22
Wild vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.77
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$105.88
All 6 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Blood," "Bloody," or "Bloodied" during McGregor vs Holloway?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+86.7%+$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump alleges Georgia foreign election interference by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.