TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,068,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,072,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,068,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over51c351,376$178,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178,443.8915545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under49c200,826$98,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,421.422268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Over50c120,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,00037627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Under52c98,960$51,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,174.919754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Under50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0004546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Under48c50,293$23,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,309.318154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c47,446$22,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,267.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under48c42,048$20,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,864.9754539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Under49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4007048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Over47c38,010$17,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,864.828643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Under50c32,836$16,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,417.9110860.2%65 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf09a…a371backed Under49c27,018$13,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,732.661457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over47c23,201$10,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,872.638251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x531b…32b6backed Under49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2002347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6969…d1b9backed Under49c17,005$8,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,672.65887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick47cpaid+82.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under49c15,312$7,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,762.521943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c14,633$7,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,316.51,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under53c14,151$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,650.9490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over47c13,732$6,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.1769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under49c13,563$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,912.514251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c11,909$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.356,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under54c11,140$6,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,124.632351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Under50c10,511$5,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,255.465442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Under49c10,071$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,136.4319359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Over44c10,000$4,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,397.4120744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Under49c8,936$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,557.361181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick54cpaid+46.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Under48c8,494$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,416.757852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f78…f679backed Under48c7,650$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,978922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Under50c6,822$3,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,411.1715141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Under46c6,522$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.7418349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Under49c6,012$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.3148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Under48c5,500$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8605940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under63c5,097$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Under47c5,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,63058951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Under52c4,938$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.0143148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Under48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.672842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e01…0875backed Under50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over49c3,711$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.2866250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under49c3,676$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.742,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c3,561$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.951,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under50c3,396$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,69838946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under49c3,301$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.4318749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf83…248bbacked Under49c3,240$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.41643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Under46c3,204$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.3514946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under48c3,160$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.3416946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9982442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Under45c2,727$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.851540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x820c…cb55backed Over51c2,708$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3811471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdda3…b20cbacked Over47c2,670$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2555745.6%26 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee0b…e9f4backed Over52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-54.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39c5…8ff1backed Under49c2,492$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6c…0701backed Under49c2,400$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7d…aa8dbacked Under49c2,400$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa2…41acbacked Under49c2,378$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e9…4355backed Under49c2,375$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e30…ddf3backed Under49c2,338$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8345…0168backed Under49c2,337$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd02…c4cebacked Under49c2,334$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1b…d40fbacked Under49c2,329$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad3…6871backed Under49c2,325$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…3071backed Under49c2,304$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f7…1494backed Under49c2,298$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…ae3dbacked Under49c2,293$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Under48c2,293$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.365345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0e…f5a7backed Under49c2,290$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…83e7backed Under49c2,289$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d8…59f5backed Under49c2,282$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe353…4efcbacked Under49c2,281$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0086…30e1backed Under49c2,280$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a6…ec14backed Under49c2,274$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1320…486abacked Under49c2,271$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…9ec0backed Under49c2,269$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aeb…9849backed Under49c2,258$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb714…79e0backed Under49c2,258$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…36b9backed Under49c2,255$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a8…c484backed Under49c2,249$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e61…e2bebacked Under49c2,240$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over52c2,239$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.2837355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x870e…868fbacked Under49c2,238$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bbb…374dbacked Under49c2,237$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…f7a9backed Under49c2,237$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcffc…172bbacked Under49c2,232$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6571…9067backed Under49c2,224$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…4f63backed Under49c2,222$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3842…3a94backed Under49c2,216$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510c…008ebacked Under49c2,216$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…9956backed Under49c2,203$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Over2c2,200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5431222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf429…d0c4backed Under49c2,188$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe4…0471backed Under49c2,184$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c1…1723backed Under49c2,176$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80df…fabcbacked Under49c2,153$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c2,136$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.912,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9e…6d33backed Under49c2,110$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x830c…11f5backed Under49c2,088$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a2…a105backed Under48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.33977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+46.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3220…59edbacked Under49c2,069$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.