NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5f2e378608d5f3336dfab1e57df9ca6dca7364a49c6f561e24d27e05d40579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Nuggets | 51c | 3,537$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.18 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,738$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.61 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4321…8fdcbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves | 48c | 694.66$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Nuggets | 46c | 601.15$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Timberwolves | 52c | 552$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.48 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Nuggets | 52c | 482.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Timberwolves | 75c | 305.79$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 295.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…3e5cbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 251.52$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 209.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nuggets | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Nuggets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Timberwolves | 49c | 134$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Nuggets | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Nuggets | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Nuggets | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…72c3backed Nuggets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Nuggets | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nuggets | 23c | 50.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f4…16f3backed Nuggets | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Timberwolves | 49c | 39.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Nuggets | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Nuggets | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Nuggets | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.