NBA · resolved market
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61126fd6183242f39db649d2be983f1847d127293b7bb7497f0f6841ecc2293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed No | 56c | 534.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 46c | 187.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed No | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…332fbacked No | 55c | 118.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yes | 45c | 106$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…5ea3backed No | 49c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Yes | 29c | 65.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 69c | 59.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…98d9backed Yes | 54c | 45.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 50c | 43.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…e44bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 46c | 27.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f93fbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked No | 80c | 22.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.